Key Takeaways
- Cambiar Investors nearly doubled its Versant Media stake in the quarter ended June 30, while David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital cut its stake 37%.
- Versant now trades below the $33.69 a share Greenlight paid on average when it bought in the first quarter.
- Versant guides to $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion of free cash flow this year, roughly a quarter of its market value, at 6.4x forward earnings.
- Versant reports third-quarter results on November 3.
Two funds went opposite ways on Versant Media (VSNT) in the second quarter, and the stock has since dropped below the price the seller paid.
Cambiar Investors nearly doubled its stake, while David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital cut its own by 37%, according to each fund’s 13F for the quarter ended June 30. Versant is down 13% since then, and it reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, November 3.
One Fund Bought, Einhorn Sold
Cambiar held 902,568 Versant shares worth $33 million at June 30, after adding 97% in the quarter, its 13F filed July 31 shows. That’s 1.4% of the fund’s 13F stocks and its 34th-largest position.
Greenlight had made the bull case only months earlier. It bought Versant in the first quarter at an average of $33.69 a share, and its first-quarter letter argued that selling by Comcast shareholders after the spinoff, plus index removals, had left the stock at under 4x adjusted EBITDA. On Greenlight’s math, the cash flow could return nearly Versant’s whole market value within four years.
By June 30, Greenlight’s 13F, filed August 14, showed 1.92 million shares worth $69 million, 37% fewer than three months before. That values the stake at about $36 a share, above Greenlight’s cost, and it’s still the fund’s 20th-largest holding. The filing doesn’t show when it sold or at what price. At Friday’s $31.42 close, the stock trades below what Greenlight paid.
TIKR Tracks 9 Analysts on Versant Media. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Versant Media, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Versant Media’s Analyst Ratings
The Cash Flow Is Still There
Versant’s August 6 report showed a shrinking business that’s still throwing off cash. Second-quarter revenue fell 3.8% to $1.64 billion, with distribution revenue from its pay-TV networks down 6.3% to $954 million as subscribers left. Adjusted EBITDA fell 8.9% to $624 million as reported, though it rose 3% against last year’s standalone figure, on lower programming and overhead costs. Net income fell 30% to $211 million as public-company and interest costs kicked in.
Management still raised its 2026 outlook to $6.2 billion to $6.45 billion of revenue and $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion of adjusted EBITDA. It held free cash flow at $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion, roughly a quarter of Versant’s $4.37 billion market value. That cash is going back to shareholders through a $0.375 quarterly dividend, a completed $100 million accelerated buyback, and a second $100 million one due to finish in the third quarter.
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $4.11 in 2026, rising to $6.48 in 2027 and $7.08 in 2028. That’s a 58% jump in one year, and few analysts publish estimates this far out, so one report can move these numbers a lot.
Against those estimates, Versant trades at 6.4x forward earnings, below its 7.0x average since it listed and about half its 12.5x peak in May.
The mean price target has climbed from $33 at listing to $44, 39% above Friday’s close, and even the lowest target, $38, is above the price.
Cambiar Has the Better Side of This Trade
The risk is pay TV. Distribution revenue fell 6.3% last quarter, and cost cuts can only offset that decline for so long.
But at 6.4x forward earnings, with free cash flow worth about a quarter of its market value, Versant is priced for a faster decline than its August report showed, and it’s buying back stock at that price. The case Einhorn made in April, a low multiple and cash coming back to shareholders, is stronger at $31 than it was at $34. On the numbers, Cambiar is on the better side.
Tuesday’s report is the test. If distribution revenue falls faster than 6.3% or the $1.0 billion free cash flow floor slips, Einhorn’s trim will look like the smarter move. The September 13Fs, due by November 16, will show whether either fund changed its mind.
So What Is Versant Media Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
