Key Takeaways
- A fund that manages $13.62 billion added to its stakes in JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and First Solar (FSLR) in Q3, its latest 13F shows.
- Analysts’ average targets point to 9% upside for JPMorgan, 19% for AMD and 43% for First Solar.
- First Solar is the cheapest of the three at about 8x forward earnings, but it just cut its 2026 sales guidance and its backlog is shrinking.
- AMD has the strongest case, with its earnings estimates still rising and the stock below its average multiple of the past year.
A fund that manages $13.62 billion just showed what it bought last quarter, and it went big on JPMorgan Chase while adding to Advanced Micro Devices and First Solar.
The fund is Mirova US, and its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 5, shows those as its three biggest new or added positions.
A 13F only shows what a fund held on the quarter’s last day, so it can’t say when the fund bought or what it paid.
JPMorgan is earning well above its target
The fund held 685,563 JPMorgan shares worth $227 million at Sept. 30, or 2.5% of its 13F holdings, after raising its share count 2,066% in the quarter. The stock is up 4% from its Sept. 30 price.
The bank’s return on tangible common equity was 20% in Q3, against the 17% it targets through the cycle.
On Oct. 13, it raised its 2026 net interest income outlook again, to about $97.2 billion excluding Markets.
But expenses rose 12% to $27.3 billion, and earnings per share of $5.57 missed the roughly $5.91 analysts expected. It was the bank’s first miss in nearly three years.
Analysts have still lifted their average target over the past year, from $328 to $373.
At about 14x forward earnings, JPMorgan trades right at its average of the past year and above its five-year average of 12x.
That’s a fair price for a bank earning 20% on its tangible equity, with 9% upside to the Street’s average target.
Not every fund is buying, though: MKP Capital Management sold its entire JPMorgan stake in the same quarter.
TIKR tracks 27 analysts on JPMorgan Chase. How many say “Buy”?
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AMD’s estimates keep climbing
JPMorgan is priced as the steady earner it is, while AMD is priced on what comes next.
The fund raised its stake 46% to 363,655 shares, worth $222 million at Sept. 30, or 2.4% of its 13F holdings. AMD is down 10% from its Sept. 30 price and 16% below its 52-week high.
The business hasn’t slowed down with the stock. AMD beat Q3 estimates on Nov. 3 and guided Q4 above consensus.
CEO Lisa Su said on the call that “demand is higher than supply.” Analysts now expect normalized EPS of $17.69 for 2027, up from $16.01 on Nov. 3.
Their average target has more than doubled in a year, from $272 to $659.
At about 37x forward earnings, AMD trades below its 45x average of the past year and a bit above its five-year average of 35x.
The growth comes at a cost. AMD granted OpenAI and Meta warrants for up to 320 million shares, 19.6% of its shares outstanding.
In Q3, it booked a first warrant charge of $1.1 billion, and management expects that charge to grow.
First Solar is cheap and shrinking
First Solar is a smaller position than the other two, and a far cheaper stock.
The fund raised its stake 37% to 897,172 shares, worth $157 million at Sept. 30, or 2% of its 13F holdings. The stock is down 2% since then, but still 43% below its 52-week high.
Its Q3 report on Oct. 29 was mixed. Earnings per share rose 25% to $5.30, and the board approved a $500 million buyback.
But net sales fell 23% to $1.23 billion on lower module volumes, and the company cut its 2026 sales guidance to $4.6 billion-$4.9 billion from $4.9 billion-$5.2 billion. Its contracted backlog fell to 44.0 GW as of Sept. 30 from 47.9 GW as of March 31.
Analysts have trimmed their average target over the past year, from $272 to $254, even with Guggenheim lifting its own to $299 just before the report.
That average still points to 43% upside, and at about 8x forward earnings, the stock is priced for a lot to go wrong. But the lowest of the 37 analysts’ targets, $169, is below the latest close.
I’d follow the fund into AMD
If I could only buy one of the three right now, it’d be AMD.
Its 2027 estimates are still rising, and the stock trades below its average multiple of the past year. JPMorgan is a fine bank at a fair price, with less room to run.
First Solar has the most upside on paper, but I’d want to see its backlog stop shrinking before I bought.
The risk with AMD is that those estimates count on Helios, its rack-scale AI system, shipping on time and in volume to OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic. Any delay would hit numbers that were just raised.
AMD’s Q4 report, expected in early February, will be the first with meaningful Helios volume. And the fund’s next 13F, due by mid-February, will show whether it held on to all three.
So what is JPMorgan Chase stock actually worth?
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