Key Takeaways for Caris Life Sciences Stock as of June 2026
- Analysts rate Caris Life Sciences stock 9 Buys, 1 Outperform, and 3 Holds, with a street mean target of $28, implying 61% upside from the current price of $17.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values Caris Life Sciences at $114 by December 2030, implying 560% total return from current levels, or 52% annualized.
- Caris Life Sciences delivered 79% revenue growth in Q1 2026 to $216 million, driven by a 61% jump in average selling price and 15% volume growth, with gross margin expanding 18 percentage points to 65%.
Caris Life Sciences Stock Beats Revenue Estimates in Q1 but Trades 59% Below Its 52-Week High
Caris Life Sciences (CAI) grew Q1 2026 revenue 79% year-over-year to $216.2 million, beating the Street’s $209.7 million estimate by 3%, while the stock sits 59% below its 52-week high with the market treating a profitable, accelerating precision oncology platform as though it were still a pre-revenue startup.
The revenue beat rested on molecular profiling services, which grew 85% year-over-year to $210.8 million on 52,800 completed clinical cases, up 15% from the same period last year.
The more consequential driver was pricing, not volume. Clinical average selling price climbed 61% year-over-year, with tissue ASP rising 70% to just over $4,300 and blood ASP up 14% to just under $2,500, reflecting the commercial momentum from the MI Cancer Seek launch and the company’s payer contracting work.
CFO Luke Power said on the Q1 earnings call: “molecular profiling services revenues increased to $211 million in the first quarter, representing an increase of 85% year-over-year,” adding that the performance combined with operating leverage produced positive adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA of $26 million and positive free cash flow of $22.5 million, the fourth consecutive quarter of both.
January was a disrupted month, with the company restructuring its sales force and expanding territories from 82 to 146, which pulled completed case counts modestly below initial expectations for the full quarter.
But activations in February and March grew 20% year-over-year versus the same two months in 2025, and the completed-case exit run rate exited Q1 at roughly 56,000, a figure management used as the foundation for expecting more than 58,000 completed cases in Q2, representing 10% sequential growth.
Beyond the core profiling business, Caris launched two new products in the quarter, Caris ChromoSeq and Caris MI Clarity. ChromoSeq is a whole-genome therapy selection assay for hematological cancers priced by MolDX at $3,228, covering a pool of roughly 50,000 patients across AML, MDS, and MPN indications. MI Clarity is a digital-pathology AI predictor of early and late recurrence risk in early-stage breast cancer, targeting a large population that does not currently receive genomic sequencing.
The company also published ACHIEVE 1 final data for Caris Detect, its multi-cancer early detection assay built on whole-genome sequencing, showing 60.3% Stage I and Stage II sensitivity across a 3,014-patient cohort with 99.2% asymptomatic specificity, a result that compares favorably to competing platforms in breast and prostate cancer.
Management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $1 billion to $1.02 billion, including molecular profiling revenue of $925 million to $935 million, representing roughly 32% total revenue growth for the year, with the guidance explicitly excluding any contribution from ChromoSeq, MI Clarity, or the planned Detect commercial launch with Everlywell.
Wall Street Rates CAI Stock 9 Buys with a $28 Mean Target, and That Is the Conservative Case
Of the 13 analysts covering Caris Life Sciences stock, 9 rate it a Buy, 1 rates it an Outperform, and 3 rate it a Hold, with a street mean target of $28 and a street high target of $36.
The $28 mean target implies 61% upside from the current $17 price, and that consensus reflects a Street that trimmed targets after Q1 (Citi moved to $28 from $35, JPMorgan to $30 from $35, BTIG to $32 from $38, and Baird to $22 from $28) while maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings, signaling that the cuts reflected modeling adjustments to Q1 case timing, not deterioration in the thesis.
The revenue trajectory from Q2 through Q4 2026 tells that story directly. Consensus expects revenue of $240 million in Q2 (31% year-over-year growth), $260 million in Q3 (21% growth), and $290 million in Q4, building toward the full-year $1 billion target that management reaffirmed.
The non-GAAP EBITDA picture is similarly constructive, with consensus estimating $30 million in Q2 at roughly 14% margins, expanding toward $40 million in Q3 at 17% margins and $50 million in Q4 at 18% margins, reflecting the operating leverage that management has consistently referenced as sequencing costs trend lower.
The Hold camp’s condition centers on execution, specifically whether the January sales force disruption produces the sustained activation improvement management expects in Q2 and beyond, and whether the Detect commercial launch adds a meaningful second growth vector before the end of 2026.
The 9 Buy ratings reflect a simpler read, with a company holding $825 million in cash and marketable securities, producing free cash flow four quarters in a row, trading at a 61% discount to its average analyst target, with a pipeline of launched and near-launched products that management explicitly excluded from the 2026 guidance range.
The Street’s open question is whether Caris Life Sciences stock’s Q2 volume delivery above 58,000 cases confirms the January realignment as a one-time timing event rather than a structural softening of demand.
Is Caris Life Sciences Stock Undervalued? TIKR’s $114 Target Says the Market Is Missing the Platform Entirely
TIKR’s mid-case values Caris Life Sciences at $114 by December 2030, implying 560% total return from the current price of $17, or 52% annualized over 4.5 years.
The $114 mid-case target is anchored to the same compounding dynamics already visible in the Q1 actuals, including a 13% revenue CAGR through 2035, net income margins reaching 18% in the mid case, and a P/E multiple that declines as earnings power materializes, reflecting multiple compression as the market re-rates Caris Life Sciences stock from speculative oncology platform to institutionally recognized precision medicine compounder.
What makes the TIKR case credible is the revenue trajectory Caris has already demonstrated before any new products contribute meaningfully, with 79% year-over-year growth in Q1 driven entirely by the core profiling business, a $100 million buyback announced in June signaling management’s own conviction in intrinsic value, and a debt facility that gives Caris $300 million in additional acquisition capacity at favorable terms extended to April 2031.
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