Key Takeaways
- Shopify fell 10% today after its third-quarter GMV of $119.1 billion came in just under the $120.1 billion analysts expected, even as revenue rose 32%.
- Shopify’s merchants are still selling close to 30% more than a year ago, which is a solid read for Global-e, which runs cross-border checkout for Shopify’s merchants and reports later this month.
- Global-e’s bar is high: analysts expect $1.34 billion of 2026 revenue, above the midpoint of its raised outlook, and its stock trades near its 52-week high.
- Global-e’s valuation sits near the low end of its five-year range, so the main things to watch are its own guidance and whether Shopify keeps more of the cross-border business for itself.
Shopify (SHOP) stock fell 10% today after its third-quarter report showed its merchants’ sales coming in less than 1% below what analysts expected.
Global-e Online (GLBE) investors should pay attention. Global-e runs cross-border checkout for Shopify’s merchants through Shopify Managed Markets, and it reports its own third quarter later this month.
A miss of less than 1%
Shopify’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 29% to $119.1 billion in the quarter. Analysts had expected $120.1 billion.
The rest of the quarter held up:
- Revenue: $3.74 billion, up 32% and in line with estimates
- Merchant solutions revenue: $2.91 billion, up 35%
- Free cash flow: $816 million, a 22% margin, ahead of the $723 million analysts expected
- Fourth-quarter outlook: revenue growth at a low-thirties rate, against the roughly 30% analysts had penciled in
So I read the drop as being about the price. Shopify went into the report at about 64x analysts’ 2027 earnings estimate, and even after today’s drop it trades in the high 50s. At that multiple, a GMV number 0.8% light was enough to knock the stock.
TIKR tracks 54 analysts on Shopify. How many say “Buy”?
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Still close to 30%
Global-e has plenty riding on Shopify’s merchants. The two signed a new three-year partnership in May 2025 that gave Global-e enhanced commercial terms, and Shopify owns a stake in Global-e worth $768 million at the end of June.
Global-e has also been growing faster than its partner. Its GMV rose 44% in the second quarter to $2.09 billion, against 32% for Shopify’s. Shopify’s international GMV grew 37% that quarter, ahead of 28% in North America.
So Shopify’s third quarter is a solid read for Global-e, with one yellow flag. Shopify’s merchants are still selling close to 30% more than a year ago, but its GMV growth slowed from 32% in the second quarter. (In constant currency, its revenue growth barely moved: 32%, against 33% in the second quarter.)
Global-e’s bar is already high
Global-e guided its third-quarter GMV to $1.995 billion-$2.045 billion and its revenue to $308.5 million-$315.5 million, with $24 million-$26 million of that from Passport. In August it also raised its full-year revenue outlook to $1.305 billion-$1.355 billion, from $1.22 billion-$1.28 billion.
Analysts are already above the midpoint of that range, at $1.34 billion for 2026, and they see revenue reaching $1.72 billion in 2027:
And I see nothing in Shopify’s quarter that should make analysts cut those estimates.
Profit has to keep up too. Global-e’s adjusted EBITDA margin rose 3 percentage points to 20.9% in the second quarter, and analysts expect normalized EPS to grow about 47% this year, to $1.57:
Global-e isn’t priced like Shopify
The two setups split on valuation. Global-e’s stock is within [2%] of its 52-week high and up [7%] this year, but it trades at 25x forward earnings, near the bottom of its range over the last five years:
(Its low, 17.5x, came in May.)
Of course, Shopify could keep more of the cross-border business for itself. The 2025 deal runs future versions of Managed Markets on Shopify Payments, so some of that 35% merchant solutions growth could be volume Global-e never sees.
Bottom line: Shopify’s quarter gives me no reason to worry about Global-e’s. And at its multiple, Global-e doesn’t need a perfect quarter the way Shopify did, so I’d expect a small miss to cost it far less.
Global-e usually reports in mid-to-late November. The numbers to watch are its third-quarter GMV against that $1.995 billion-$2.045 billion range, and whether it raises its full-year outlook again.
So what is Global-e stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
