Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has delivered a strong run in recent years. Refining margins have stayed healthy, cash flow has been steady, and shareholder returns remain robust through dividends and buybacks. The stock trades near $158/share, holding close to its highs as analysts begin to look for signs of what comes next.
In its latest results, Valero reaffirmed its commitment to renewables by expanding its renewable diesel operations and allocating more capital toward cleaner fuels. The company also maintained a healthy balance sheet and continued share repurchases despite softer refining margins. These moves highlight management’s focus on stability and disciplined execution through shifting energy conditions.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Valero could trade by 2027. We have gathered consensus price targets and valuation model insights to outline the stock’s potential path. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
Unlock our Free Report: 5 AI compounders that analysts believe are undervalued and could deliver years of outperformance with accelerating AI adoption (Sign up for TIKR, it’s free) >>>
Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Valero trades around $156/share today. The average analyst price target is $173/share, which points to roughly 11% upside from current levels.
- High estimate: ~$200/share
- Low estimate: ~$138/share
- Median target: ~$177/share
- Ratings: 9 Buys, 7 Outperforms, 6 Holds
Analysts see modest upside ahead, reflecting confidence in Valero’s stable operations but limited growth potential. For investors, the stock looks like a dependable income and cash flow play, with performance tied to refining margins and fuel demand staying steady.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Valero Energy (It’s free!) >>>
Valero Energy: Growth Outlook and Valuation
Valero’s fundamentals look stable but not particularly strong:
- Revenue forecast: (3.1%) CAGR through 2027
- Operating margin: ~4%
- Shares trade near: 14× forward earnings
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 14× forward P/E suggests ~$166/share by 2027
- That implies: about 6% total return, or 2.8% annualized
For investors, this indicates that Valero is trading close to fair value. Most of its total return is expected to come from dividends and share repurchases rather than major price appreciation. The company’s consistency and disciplined spending make it a good fit for income-focused portfolios.
Value stocks like Valero Energy in as little as 60 seconds with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
What’s Driving the Optimism?
Valero continues to benefit from strong execution and a best-in-class refining network. Management has made meaningful progress expanding its renewable fuels business, giving the company exposure to cleaner energy without compromising profitability.
At the same time, its focus on cost control and shareholder returns remains firm. For investors, this combination of operational efficiency and sustainability efforts supports steady earnings and long-term resilience even as energy markets evolve.
Bear Case: Margin Pressure and Slower Growth
Even with these positives, Valero’s results remain heavily tied to refining margins, which can shift quickly with oil prices and global demand. If crude spreads narrow or fuel consumption weakens, profitability could take a hit. Revenue is already expected to decline slightly, and thin margins limit the room for upside.
For investors, this means growth could stall if the macro environment turns unfavorable. The stock may hold steady but deliver muted total returns until market conditions improve.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Valero Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 14× forward P/E suggests Valero could trade near $166/share by 2027. That implies about 6% total return, or roughly 2.8% annualized from current levels.
For investors, this paints a picture of steady but limited upside. Valero’s story is built on balance sheet strength, efficient operations, and reliable cash flow rather than aggressive growth. The company should continue rewarding shareholders, but large price gains will likely depend on refining margins staying stronger than expected.
AI Compounders With Massive Upside That Wall Street Is Overlooking
Everyone wants to cash in on AI. But while the crowd chases the obvious names benefiting from AI like NVIDIA, AMD, or Taiwan Semiconductor, the real opportunity may lie on the AI application layer where a handful of compounders are quietly embedding AI into products people already use every day.
TIKR just released a new free report on 5 undervalued compounders that analysts believe could deliver years of outperformance as AI adoption accelerates.
Inside the report, you’ll find:
- Businesses already turning AI into revenue and earnings growth
- Stocks trading below fair value despite strong analyst forecasts
- Unique picks most investors haven’t even considered
If you want to catch the next wave of AI winners, this report is a must-read.
Click here to sign up for TIKR and get your free copy of TIKR’s 5 AI Compounders report today.