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Key Stats for UAL Stock
- 1-day Price Change for UAL stock: -3%
- Current Share Price: $86
- 52-Week High: $116
- UAL Stock Price Target: $96
What Happened?
United Airlines (UAL) stock is down today, despite the carrier delivering a second-quarter earnings beat that exceeded Wall Street expectations. At the same time, CEO Scott Kirby provided an optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2025.
The airline reported adjusted earnings of $3.87 per share, surpassing the $3.81 estimate; however, revenue of $15.24 billion fell slightly below the expected $15.34 billion.
The standout news came from Kirby’s commentary on demand trends. After a challenging first half of 2025 marked by weaker-than-expected travel demand from price-sensitive customers, United has seen a significant turnaround.
Beginning in early July, the airline experienced a sequential 6-point acceleration in overall demand and a double-digit acceleration in business demand compared to the second quarter.
“The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025, and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year,” Kirby said, attributing the improvement to reduced geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
This optimism translated into updated full-year guidance, with United raising its adjusted earnings per share forecast to $9.00 to $11.00, up from the previous range that included a “recessionary scenario” of $7-$9 per share issued in April, during peak economic uncertainty.
However, the results weren’t without challenges. Unit revenue dropped 4% in the quarter, with domestic passenger revenue per seat mile falling 7% year-over-year. Even international markets showed some weakness, with Europe unit revenues down 2.2%.
Operational constraints at Newark Liberty International Airport, a major United hub, also impacted the quarter, hitting pre-tax margin by 1.2 percentage points.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for United Airlines (It’s free!) >>>
What the Market Is Telling Us About UAL Stock
The market’s reaction to UAL stock might not reflect investor relief that the worst of the demand weakness appears to be behind United.
However, the acceleration in demand beginning in July suggests that the airline’s strategic positioning and operational improvements are resonating with customers as economic uncertainty diminishes.
United’s diverse revenue streams provided some stability during the challenging quarter, with premium cabin revenue up 5.6% year-over-year and loyalty revenue growing 8.7%. This demonstrates the airline’s ability to capture higher-value customers, even during periods of softer demand.
UAL’s operational performance also improved in a meaningful way, with the company achieving its highest second-quarter on-time departure rate since 2021 and lowest seat cancellation rates since the pandemic.
These improvements, combined with the demand acceleration, support management’s confidence in a “strong finish to the year.”
While revenue slightly missed expectations, the earnings beat and improved outlook suggest that UAL stock is well-positioned to benefit from the expected industry capacity cuts that rivals, like Delta, have announced for post-summer 2025.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
