Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) has been one of retail’s biggest laggards. After a sharp selloff, the stock now trades near $90/share, down more than 40% in the past year. Weak consumer demand, margin pressure, and cautious guidance have all weighed on sentiment. But with the stock sitting near multi-year lows, analysts are divided on what comes next.
Recently, Target has made headlines on two fronts. The company rolled out a nationwide accessible self-checkout program ahead of the holiday season, signaling a push to improve the in-store experience and strengthen customer loyalty. At the same time, an activist investor challenge to leadership changes has put governance in the spotlight, raising questions about the company’s direction under new board dynamics. These developments add fresh context for investors weighing the stock’s recovery potential.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Target could trade by 2028. We have pulled together consensus targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to get a sense of the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Target trades at about $90/share today. The average analyst price target is $102/share, which points to around 13% upside. Forecasts show a wide spread and reflect divided sentiment:
- High estimate: ~$130/share
- Low estimate: ~$80/share
- Median target: ~$100/share
- Ratings: 6 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 22 Holds, 4 Underperforms, 1 Sell
It looks like analysts see some room for gains, but the broad range of forecasts suggests conviction is weak. For investors, this means Wall Street expects only a modest rebound, with the stock’s path higher dependent on Target stabilizing earnings and improving margins.
Investors should weigh whether the potential 13% upside justifies the risks of owning a retailer still navigating cost pressures and sluggish discretionary sales.
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Target: Growth Outlook and Valuation
Target’s outlook reflects stability rather than strong growth. The model projects modest improvement in fundamentals as the company focuses on maintaining profitability:
- Revenue growth forecast at 1% annually through early 2028
- Operating margins expected around 5%
- Shares valued at about 11x forward earnings, below long-term averages
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model points to ~$112/share by January 2028
- That implies roughly 25% total upside, or about 10% annualized returns
These projections suggest Target is entering a steady, value-driven phase. For investors, the stock appears attractively priced for moderate gains, assuming conditions in consumer spending and margins hold stable.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Target still has strengths that give bulls confidence. Essentials and grocery categories remain resilient, helping keep store traffic steady even as discretionary sales lag. The company’s brand recognition and nationwide footprint also provide a base of stability.
On top of that, management is leaning on cost discipline and digital fulfillment to protect margins. These efforts may not spark rapid growth, but they could help earnings recover gradually. If inflation pressures ease and consumer sentiment improves, Target’s sales mix could shift back toward higher-margin categories. For investors, these trends support the view that today’s valuation may understate Target’s long-term earnings potential.
Bear Case: Valuation and Competition
Despite the positives, Target faces heavy competitive and cost pressures. Walmart, Amazon, and dollar stores are pushing hard on pricing and convenience, while labor and logistics costs remain elevated. If consumer spending on discretionary goods like apparel and home stays weak, revenue growth could remain stuck.
There is also the risk that traffic remains soft even as costs rise, further squeezing margins. For investors, the concern is that even at ~11x earnings, the stock may not be a bargain if profitability fails to rebound. The bear case is that Target becomes a value trap, where muted sales and persistent cost headwinds prevent a return to its historical profitability levels.
Outlook for 2028: What Could Target Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using an 11.5x forward P/E suggests Target could trade near $112/share by 2028. That would represent about a 25% gain from today’s level, or ~10% annualized returns.
This outcome assumes earnings stabilize and margins see modest improvement. While that would mark a healthy recovery from today’s depressed levels, it does not leave much room for error. For investors, the takeaway is that Target looks like a cautious value play, steady but unspectacular unless the company surprises with stronger consumer recovery or sharper operational execution.
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