Key Takeaways
- Super Micro Computer rose 4% today as AI hardware stocks, including Dell and AMD, bounced back from Monday’s sell-off.
- Super Micro reports tonight, and its own estimate puts September-quarter gross margin at 12.0% to 12.5%, down from 17.5% in the June quarter.
- A SambaNova deal puts inference chips next to Nvidia’s GPUs in Super Micro’s racks.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose 4% today as AI hardware stocks bounced back from Monday’s chip sell-off, ahead of its report after the close. Dell Technologies (DELL) gained 4%, and AMD (AMD) rose 5%.
Before the open, SambaNova said Super Micro will build racks that pair SambaNova’s SN50 inference chips with Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs, starting with a plan for 10,000 chips, a small start.
Margin is tonight’s real test
Super Micro had given back nearly all of its Oct. 21 jump, so I see today’s gain as a bounce for the whole group.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to climb from $3.63 in fiscal 2026 to $5.68 by fiscal 2028.
Those estimates depend on gross margin. It fell to 6.3% in the December 2025 quarter and then reached 17.5% in the June 2026 quarter.
Management said about 75% of the June jump came from customer and product mix, including big contracts that slipped into the September quarter.
Even so, Super Micro traded at 6.4x forward earnings at Monday’s close, near its five-year low and well below its 15x average.
A second chip in the rack
Nvidia, up 3%, keeps its place in these racks: its GPUs read the prompt, and SambaNova’s chips write the response. AMD, whose chips Super Micro also builds servers around, reports tonight against its own guidance of about $13 billion in third-quarter revenue, up about 41%.
TIKR tracks 18 analysts on Super Micro Computer. How many say “Buy”?
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Dell has the same question
Dell booked $60.9 billion of AI server orders in its fiscal second quarter and ended it with a $95 billion backlog. If Super Micro’s margin holds above 12% tonight, Monday’s selling in Dell looks overdone. If not, Dell faces the same question: how much does that backlog earn?
Super Micro has to earn this one
For the bounce to last, I want three things tonight:
- a final gross margin of at least 12%
- positive operating cash flow, after negative free cash flow of $7.0 billion in fiscal 2026
- its fiscal 2027 revenue range of $65 billion to $72 billion held or raised
At this multiple, that would be plenty.
Of course, those slipped low-margin deals still have to ship, so December-quarter margin guidance matters as much as tonight’s number.
So what is Super Micro stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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