Key Takeaways
- SoFi stock is down 46% over the past year, closing at $15 on October 15, 2026, after peaking near $32 in November 2025.
- Q2 adjusted revenue rose 40% YoY to a record $1.2B, and SoFi lifted FY26 revenue guidance to $4.75B to $4.85B while holding adjusted EPS at $0.60.
- Reuters reported a 9% early-trading drop on July 29.
- TIKR’s mid-case model puts SoFi stock at $34 by December 2030, a 127.5% total return, or 21.5% a year.
SoFi Stock Is Down 46% in a Year, but Second-Quarter Revenue Hit a Record
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) posted a record $1.2 billion in second-quarter adjusted revenue, up 40%, yet SoFi stock has fallen 46% over the past year to close at $15 on October 15, 2026. The chart opens near $28 in mid-October 2025 and peaks near $32 in November.
Most of the decline came before that quarter. After SoFi reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.025 billion on January 30, SoFi stock slid from the mid-$20s to near $20 by mid-February, then touched the $15 area in early April. It spent May through July mostly between $15 and $19.
SoFi reported the second quarter on July 29, raising 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion while holding adjusted EPS guidance at $0.60. Reuters said the shares fell 9% in early trading that day and tied the drop to the unchanged profit outlook.
Asked on the second-quarter earnings call why SoFi kept its EBITDA forecast, CFO Chris Lapointe said, “There are just too many large attractive growth areas for us to invest versus adding even more profitability.” The EPS guide also carried a 22% tax rate, approximately 700 basis points above the original, and Lapointe said the old rate would have put it at $0.65.
SoFi stock worked back to near $19 by mid-September. On September 22, SoFi and Mastercard launched stablecoin settlement for SoFi Bank’s card program, with SoFi migrating the full program to SoFiUSD and targeting more than $25 billion in annualized volume. SoFi Tech Solutions then partnered with Orbi and Mastercard on a crypto-linked card in Mexico on October 8, and the stock dipped near $14 days later.
From near $28 in mid-October 2025 to $15 on October 15, most of the ground went in February, and the rest came in two steps: July 29 and the weeks after mid-September.
TIKR’s Model Puts SoFi Stock at $34 by 2030
I ran a mid case with revenue growing 17.5% a year, a net income margin of 19.8%, EPS growing 21.2% a year, and the P/E shrinking 8.8% a year. Revenue grew 37.8% over the last year, so that is less than half the pace. The margin, though, is more than triple last year’s 6.3%.
I kept both inputs below management’s own markers, the 30% revenue growth target through 2028 and the 25% to 30% net margin target Lapointe laid out at Goldman Sachs on September 8, because the model runs a decade and he put no date on the margin goal.
The model lands at $34 by December 31, 2030. That is a 127.5% total return from the $15 close over 4.2 years, or 21.5% a year.
By my math, $34 is roughly 2.3 times the current price and a little above the November 2025 peak near $32. The test is whether the net margin climbs from 6.3% toward 19.8%. Third-quarter results on October 27 bring the next reading.
Think a 19.8% net margin is too rich or too cautious for SoFi? Swap in your own assumptions and stress-test SOFI on TIKR for free →
So what is SoFi stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
