SMCI Jumps 11% on Buy the Dip Frenzy. Why Super Micro Might Still Have 200% Upside

Wiltone Asuncion3 minute read
Reviewed by: Thomas Richmond
Last updated Jan 21, 2026

Key Stats for Super Micro Computer Stock

  • Price Change: +10.9%
  • Current Price: $33
  • Advanced Model Price Target: $100

Want to know how much upside SMCI could have in 2026? Run the numbers yourself on TIKR (It’s free) →

What Happened?

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged nearly 11% on Friday, triggering a massive “Buy the Dip” signal after a volatile week.

Buyers flooded back into the stock, snapping up shares at a valuation that many now consider “dirt cheap” relative to its AI growth potential.

The rally comes just days after Mizuho Securities cut its price target, a move that initially weighed on sentiment earlier in the month.

However, investors are refocusing on the company’s confirmed guidance for $36 billion in revenue for fiscal ’26, which remains unchanged despite the noise.

Consequently, SMCI is rebounding aggressively as the market bets that the recent sell-off was a temporary overreaction.

Super Micro Computer Stock Price Target (TIKR)

Is SMCI Undervalued Today?

The market is waking up to the disconnect between the stock price and the company’s backlog visibility.

Speaking at the recent Barclays Global Technology Conference, Senior Executive Michael Staiger emphasized that the demand environment is “cooking right now” and reaffirmed the company’s massive growth outlook

According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, this volatility has created a massive entry opportunity.

  • Implied Fair Value: $100
  • Current Price: $33
  • Potential Upside: +206.6%

The model assumes Super Micro can maintain a 32.2% revenue CAGR as it scales its liquid-cooled rack solutions for hyperscalers.

If the company hits its mid-case targets, the stock could triple from current levels, validating the “retail favorite” status it currently holds.

Estimate SMCI’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>

How Much Upside Does Super Micro Computer Stock Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

  1. Revenue Growth
  2. Operating Margins
  3. Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!

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