Key Stats for Oracle Stock
- Current Price: $126.16
- Target Price (Mid): ~$417
- Street Target: ~$237
- Potential Total Return: ~230%
- Annualized IRR: ~30% / year
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What Happened?
Oracle (ORCL) closed at $126.16 on October 23, 55.47% below its highest close of the past year, per TIKR. That price is about 6 times the roughly $20.80 in normalized EPS analysts expect for fiscal 2030, which ends May 31, 2030. It is also about 6 times the $21 in adjusted EPS Oracle itself targets for that year. Paying that little for earnings about four and a half years away signals deep doubt about the route to them. Oracle’s October 28 Investor Day, a year after it set those targets, is where it has to answer.
The 2030 Forecast Held While Goldman Cut
Oracle unveiled fiscal 2030 goals of $225 billion in revenue and $21 in adjusted EPS at its analyst meeting on October 16, 2025, and the stock fell about 7% the next day. The Street’s forecast moved to meet them. TIKR’s fiscal 2030 revenue consensus rose from around $198 billion on September 30, 2025, to around $227 billion by December 31. It stood near $226 billion as of October 25, though only 11 analysts forecast that far out.
On October 23, Goldman Sachs cut its target to $206 from $240 while keeping a Buy rating. Goldman questioned whether the fiscal 2028 to 2030 targets are achievable and how the data center buildout is progressing. Cantor Fitzgerald had reiterated its $284 target on October 22. RBC heads into the event in wait-and-see mode and wants clearer expectations for the applications business.
On that front, co-CEO Mike Sicilia said in September that Oracle would unveil an agentic AI accelerator at AI World. He said it would compress software deployments “from years to months and months to weeks.” Oracle also used October 23 to commit $1 billion over four years to its partner ecosystem, covering training, cloud migration funding and go-to-market collaboration. Shares closed up 0.49% on a day that brought both the Goldman cut and the partner news.
TIKR tracks 43 analysts on Oracle. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oracle, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oracle’s Analyst Ratings
Project Jupiter Tests Magouyrk’s “Bad Plan” Rule
On the September 10 call, co-CEO Clay Magouyrk said slippage is built into Oracle’s planning: “if their plan relies on 100% achievement of every one of their deliverables, we have a term for that. It’s called a bad plan.” He said neither the New Mexico nor the Wisconsin site affects fiscal 2027 guidance. That leaves fiscal 2028 to 2030, the years Goldman questioned, as the open window.
New Mexico is where the risk sits. Bloomberg reported in September that Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, preserving the right to delay payments if the campus misses its 2028 start. Oracle says the project remains on schedule, though Magouyrk said Oracle was still acquiring the site’s air permit. RBC wants a timeline for AI infrastructure margins to settle in the 30% to 40% range it says management has guided to.
Asked about falling gross margin, CFO Hilary Maxson pointed to a different measure: “for me, operating margin is probably the ultimate point that we want to follow.” Oracle’s EBIT margin was 42.13% in the quarter ended August 31, per TIKR. October 28 should show whether that level holds as more AI capacity comes online.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $126.16
- Target Price (Mid): ~$417
- Potential Total Return: ~230%
- Annualized IRR: ~30% / year
The mid case is a scenario, not a forecast. For context, consensus has normalized EPS rising from $7.63 in fiscal 2026 to around $25 in fiscal 2031, a year in which only five analysts forecast revenue.
The primary risk is capacity slipping at sites like Project Jupiter, pushing revenue and earnings later. Upside comes if Investor Day raises the fiscal 2030 targets or puts a date on the AI margin range. On the downside, the Street’s lowest target, $110, sits 13% below the current price.
Conclusion
On October 28, the number to hear is $21. A reaffirmed or raised target, with a date for AI margins reaching 30% to 40%, keeps the debate on delivery, which the second-quarter report expected December 14 can test. A trimmed target would likely pull the Street’s fiscal 2030 EPS estimate of around $20.80 down with it.
So what is Oracle stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
