Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) has been under pressure in recent years. Sales growth has slowed, margins have compressed, and competition is heating up. The stock trades near $75/share, down about 12% over the past year. Weakness in North America has weighed on results, though Nike’s global brand and direct-to-consumer push still give analysts reasons for optimism.
Recently, Nike posted fiscal Q1 2026 results that topped expectations, with revenue up 1% to $11.7 billion and EPS of $0.49. The company also launched a high-profile Nike × SKIMS activewear line, aimed at boosting engagement with female consumers and refreshing its product mix. These moves suggest Nike is still capable of sparking growth even as it works through a tough retail backdrop.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Nike could trade by 2028. We have pulled together consensus targets and valuation models to outline the stock’s potential path. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Upside
Nike trades at about $75/share today. The average analyst price target is $92/share, which points to around 23% upside. Forecasts show a wide spread and reflect divided sentiment:
- High estimate: ~$120/share
- Low estimate: ~$38/share
- Median target: ~$81/share
- Ratings: 17 Buys, 6 Outperforms, 14 Holds, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell
It looks like analysts see some room for gains, but the wide range of forecasts suggests conviction is weak. For investors, the stock could move sharply in either direction depending on how well management executes its turnaround strategy.
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Nike: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals appear stable, but not particularly strong:
- Revenue is projected to grow ~3–4% annually through 2028
- Operating margins are expected to stay near ~9%
- Shares trade at ~38x forward earnings, above peer averages
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 33x forward P/E suggests ~$93/share by 2028
- That implies about 25% upside, or ~9% annualized returns
These numbers suggest Nike can compound steadily but not at the pace of its strongest years. The stock looks expensive for single-digit growth, which means upside depends on stronger-than-expected margin recovery or faster international expansion.
For investors, Nike is more of a stable brand play than a growth story, with returns likely capped unless management reignites sales momentum.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Nike’s brand remains one of the strongest in global sportswear. Its direct-to-consumer strategy is supporting higher margins, and digital sales are growing steadily. International markets, especially China, provide long-term growth opportunities that could offset slower demand in North America.
Management’s focus on product innovation and supply chain efficiency also gives reason for optimism. For investors, these strengths suggest Nike has the tools to stabilize results and gradually rebuild earnings momentum.
Bear Case: Valuation and Competition
Even with these positives, Nike’s valuation looks demanding given its sluggish growth profile. The stock still trades at a premium while sales trends remain uneven.
Competition is also intensifying. Adidas, Puma, and emerging brands are chipping away at share, while consumers remain cautious in mature markets. For investors, the risk is that Nike’s brand dominance may not be enough to justify its premium pricing if growth continues to lag.
Outlook for 2028: What Could Nike Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests Nike could trade near $93/share by 2028. That would represent about a 25% gain from today, or roughly 9% annualized returns.
While this would mark a decent recovery, it already assumes some optimism. To deliver stronger upside, Nike would need to outperform in key areas like China, digital adoption, and direct-to-consumer profitability. Without that, investors should expect steady but limited returns.
For investors, Nike looks like a reliable long-term brand, but the path to outsized gains depends on management exceeding today’s cautious expectations.
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