Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) trades near $260/share, roughly flat over the past year. The stock reflects steady travel demand but limited excitement as investors wait for clearer growth catalysts.
Recently, Marriott reported third-quarter results that showed continued strength in global travel, with revenue per available room (RevPAR) up year over year and adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations. The company also announced plans to add more than 230,000 new rooms by 2026, expanding its footprint in Asia and the luxury segment. These moves highlight Marriott’s focus on long-term growth and global brand leadership, even as near-term demand normalizes.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts expect Marriott to trade by 2027. We’ve combined consensus forecasts and TIKR’s valuation models to outline the stock’s potential path based on current market expectations. These figures reflect analyst estimates, not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Marriott trades near $260/share today. The average analyst price target is around $285/share, implying roughly 10% upside over the next 12 months.
- High estimate: ~$332/share
- Low estimate: ~$205/share
- Median target: ~$284/share
- Ratings: 8 Buys, 1 Outperform, 16 Holds, 1 Sell
For investors, this suggests Wall Street expects modest upside as travel demand remains steady but growth slows. Most analysts view Marriott as a dependable performer rather than a breakout stock. The company’s steady earnings profile and global reach support the valuation, but stronger international growth or corporate travel recovery would be needed for meaningful outperformance.
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Marriott: Growth Outlook and Valuation
Marriott’s fundamentals continue to look strong:
- Revenue is projected to grow about 5% annually through 2027
- Operating margins are expected near 17.5%
- Shares trade around 25x forward earnings, roughly in line with premium peers
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 23.9x forward P/E suggests ~$324/share by 2027
- That implies about 24% total upside, or roughly 10% annualized returns
These figures show Marriott can compound steadily but not aggressively. Its asset-light structure and loyalty ecosystem make it a strong cash generator, though much of that strength appears priced in.
For investors, Marriott looks like a stable, well-run business that could deliver consistent returns if travel demand stays healthy. The setup favors patient investors who want predictable growth and durable brand strength over short-term momentum.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Marriott continues to benefit from resilient global travel demand and strong brand equity. Its asset-light model allows the company to generate steady fee income while keeping capital requirements low. The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program, now one of the largest in the world, helps sustain repeat bookings and pricing power across regions.
Recent results showed healthy RevPAR growth and improving group and business travel trends, signaling balanced recovery across segments. For investors, these strengths point to a stable and cash-rich model that can weather slowdowns while still growing earnings at a measured pace.
Bear Case: Valuation and Travel Risks
Even with these positives, Marriott’s valuation already prices in much of its recovery. The stock trades near 25x forward earnings, which looks fair given moderate growth expectations. If travel demand softens or costs rise faster than expected, margin expansion could stall.
Competition among global hotel brands also remains intense, especially in Asia where new entrants are expanding quickly. For investors, the risk is that Marriott’s premium valuation leaves little room for error if global travel slows or consumer spending weakens.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Marriott Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests Marriott could trade near $324/share by 2027. That would represent about 24% total upside, or roughly 10% annualized returns from current levels.
While this marks steady progress, it already assumes ongoing travel recovery, stable margins, and disciplined capital allocation. To deliver stronger gains, Marriott would likely need to outperform in new market expansion or drive higher profitability through its loyalty and franchise operations.
For investors, Marriott looks like a reliable long-term compounder with consistent earnings visibility. The upside may not be dramatic, but its balance sheet strength and global scale make it a high-quality name for those seeking durable growth and stability in the travel sector.
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