Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) has struggled recently. The stock trades near $248/share, down about 9% in the past year as cooling housing demand weighed on sales. Still, margins remain resilient, supported by cost discipline and steady contractor demand. But with growth muted and competition from rivals like Home Depot still fierce, analysts are divided on what comes next.
Recently, Lowe’s has been leaning into its professional customer base with acquisitions like Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, moves designed to expand its Pro distribution network and strengthen installation services. The company has also seen growth in online sales, driven by new digital tools and loyalty initiatives. On top of that, Lowe’s continues to return cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, offering investors stability even in a slower housing cycle.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Lowe’s could trade by 2028. We have pulled together consensus targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to outline the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
Lowe’s trades at about $248/share today. The average analyst price target is $283/share, which points to around 15% upside:
- High estimate: ~$325/share
- Low estimate: ~$221/share
- Median target: ~$283/share
- Ratings: mix of Buys, Holds, and a few Sells
It looks like analysts expect some gains, but conviction is weak. For investors, the takeaway is that upside exists, but it is modest and tied to steady execution rather than bold growth. Lowe’s may drift higher over time, but excitement is limited unless the housing cycle improves.
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Lowe’s: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals suggest stability rather than fast growth:
- Revenue is projected to rise modestly through 2028
- Operating margins expected to stay near current levels
- Shares trade at ~19x forward earnings, in line with history
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 17.6x forward P/E suggests ~$281/share by 2028
- That implies about 14% upside, or ~6% annualized returns
These figures show a company that can keep compounding, but at a slow pace. For investors, Lowe’s looks dependable, but with capped returns unless housing trends improve.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Lowe’s has managed to protect margins even as sales have softened. Efficiency programs, disciplined cost management, and a loyal contractor base have helped stabilize results through a weaker housing cycle.
Another factor is shareholder returns. With a consistent dividend and ongoing buybacks, Lowe’s is rewarding investors even without strong revenue growth. For investors, this creates a defensive profile: the stock may not be exciting, but it delivers steady value while waiting for a housing recovery.
Bear Case: Valuation and Competition
Risks remain. Revenue growth has slowed, and a prolonged housing slump could keep sales under pressure. Competition is also fierce, with Home Depot’s scale and e-commerce rivals pushing hard on pricing and market share.
For investors, the risk is that Lowe’s is already priced for stability with little margin of safety. If growth stays weak or competitive pressures intensify, returns could remain muted and the stock might face a valuation reset.
Outlook for 2028: What Could Lowe’s Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 17.6x forward P/E suggests Lowe’s could trade near $281/share by 2028. That would represent about a 14% gain from today’s price, or roughly 6% annualized returns.
While that points to steady compounding, the outlook already assumes stable margins and modest growth. For investors, Lowe’s looks like a safe long-term compounder, but outsized returns depend on the company outperforming current cautious forecasts.
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