Key Takeaways
- IREN fell 9% today, with CoreWeave and Applied Digital, after Democrats won Congress and Texas elected a governor backing a data center moratorium.
- Jim Cramer warned investors to be careful with Nebius and IREN.
- About half of IREN’s power is in Texas, where Riot Platforms just signed a $28 billion AI lease.
- IREN trades on AI sentiment, so it’s a stock to size small.
IREN (IREN) fell 9% today after Democrats won Congress and Texas elected a Democratic governor, Gina Hinojosa, who has pledged a moratorium on new data center construction. CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 6%, and Applied Digital (APLD) is down 3%.
The market rallied, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer warned investors to “be careful with the Nebius/IRENs of the world” in a post on X. Nebius (NBIS) slipped too. Yet this morning Riot Platforms (RIOT) leased its whole Corsicana, Texas campus to a frontier AI lab.
Texas holds about half of IREN’s power
IREN’s three Texas campuses hold 2.75 of the roughly 5 gigawatts it has secured. A moratorium would stop the halls it hasn’t built.
Analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple from $707 million to $2.81 billion in fiscal 2027, then reach $7.41 billion:
IREN has already contracted $4 billion of annual run-rate revenue for capacity coming online this year, so I don’t expect the election to move fiscal 2027 much. Fiscal 2028 is more exposed.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on IREN. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IREN, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IREN’s Analyst Ratings
A stock to size small
IREN trades at 3.1x forward sales, against a 5.2x three-year average and 17x at its November 2025 peak:
Today’s drop takes it a little lower. IREN guides to $25 billion to $30 billion of capital spending this fiscal year, after a 48% jump in its share count last year. So the stock moves on every headline about who pays for AI.
Nebius is in the same boat, funding its build partly with a $3.5 billion, 364-day loan from Citi; it reports Nov. 12. CoreWeave reports next week, and Applied Digital’s CEO said recently that 800 megawatts of its capacity still needs financing.
Riot took a different route: the lab takes all 910 megawatts, about $28 billion over 15 years, and brings its own computers. Riot earns less per megawatt, but needs about $6 million of capital per megawatt, against more than $40 million for IREN’s Microsoft contract.
Be careful, and watch Thursday
Cramer’s right. IREN’s contracts didn’t change overnight, but I’d keep any position small enough to sit through headlines like these.
Thursday’s fiscal first-quarter report could change that: watch the Sept. 30 share count, any data center financing and what management says about Texas.
So what is IREN stock actually worth?
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