Key Takeaways
- Hims & Hers lost 22% in a week, including a 16.6% drop after it cut its 2026 profit outlook for the third time, erasing the lift from its Eli Lilly deal.
- Third-quarter revenue grew 49%, but gross margin fell to 57% from 74%, and subscribers fell from June.
- Lilly’s first quarter selling directly on Hims, next to Novo Nordisk’s drugs, has to bring subscribers back.
- Needham’s $32 target rests on estimates that are still falling, so it looks too optimistic for now.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock is down 22% in the past week. The worst day was Nov. 10, when shares fell 16.6% after the company cut its profit outlook for the third time this year.
That more than undid the Nov. 6 gain, when Eli Lilly (LLY) agreed to sell Zepbound and Foundayo on Hims, next to the Wegovy that Novo Nordisk (NVO) has sold there since March. Needham still rates the stock a Buy, with a $32 target, down from $42, for 54% upside.
A third cut on 49% growth
Third-quarter revenue rose 49% to $890.4 million. But branded weight-loss drugs earn far less per dollar than the compounded versions they replaced, so gross margin fell to 57% from 74%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance dropped to $257 million to $277 million, from the $275 million to $325 million set in August. That’s less than 2025’s $318 million, on about a third more revenue.
Subscribers slipped to 2.79 million from 2.89 million in June.
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Can Needham’s $32 hold up?
That leaves the fourth quarter, Lilly’s first selling directly on Hims, to bring subscribers back. Zepbound brought Lilly $5.3 billion of US revenue in the third quarter alone, so Hims is a small outlet for the drug. And Novo’s Wegovy pen starts at $199 a month, against Zepbound’s $299. Will Zepbound bring Hims new patients, or just take Wegovy’s?
Consensus has $270 million of EBITDA for 2026 and $383 million for 2027:
That 2027 figure needs about 43% growth from this year’s new midpoint, a tall order while subscribers are shrinking. At about 18x forward earnings before the report, near the bottom of its three-year range, Hims is cheap only if those estimates hold. Needham’s $32 also sits above a consensus target that has fallen by a third in a year:
After the report, Leerink Partners, J.P. Morgan, Jefferies and Morgan Stanley now have targets of $24 or $25. The legal overhang grew too: on Nov. 10, five more states joined the FTC’s privacy and billing lawsuit against Hims. The claims are unproven, and Hims says it will fight them.
Needham’s $32 looks too optimistic until Zepbound and Foundayo bring subscribers back. Still, if 2027 guidance, due early next year, shows the extra revenue turning into EBITDA dollars, this third cut could be the last.
So what is Hims & Hers stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
