Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly stock is up 10% in a week after third-quarter revenue jumped 39% and Lilly raised its 2026 sales forecast to $91-$92 billion.
- Volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%, so the raise rests on demand.
- About $2 billion of this year’s revenue won’t repeat, and Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss pill is far outselling Lilly’s.
- Even after the run, Lilly trades near 30x forward earnings, about a quarter below its 40x five-year average, so it still looks like a buy.
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock rose 10% from its Oct. 28 close to its Nov. 4 close, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.6%. Investors are rewarding an Oct. 29 report that beat on nearly every line.
The one soft spot is pills, where Novo Nordisk (NVO) kept a wide lead in its Nov. 4 report.
A $5.5 billion raise built on demand
Revenue jumped 39% to $24.4 billion, against the $22.6 billion analysts expected, and non-GAAP EPS of $7.48 beat TIKR’s $6.61 consensus. Then Lilly raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $91-$92 billion, from $85-$87 billion.
Volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%, and gross margin still climbed a point, to 83.9%.
Next year has a higher bar
On the third-quarter call, CFO Lucas Montarce flagged about $2 billion of 2026 revenue, from milestones and rebate-estimate changes, that won’t come back next year. Analysts expect more than $100 billion of revenue in 2027, so once those one-time sales are gone, Lilly needs mid-teens growth to get there.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to more than double from 2025 to 2028:
Novo’s pill is the one to watch
Foundayo is where the quarter fell short. Sales nearly doubled to $184 million, but analysts expected $217 million, according to LSEG, and most of its launches outside the US are slated for 2027.
Novo’s Wegovy pill brought in DKK 4.2 billion in the US alone in the third quarter, more than three times Foundayo’s worldwide sales, according to Novo’s Nov. 4 report. Novo also put the pill’s US new-to-brand share at around 80%.
Lilly can afford to trail on pills for now, while its injections grow this fast. But a slow 2027 abroad would hand Novo a long head start.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Eli Lilly. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Eli Lilly, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Eli Lilly’s Analyst Ratings
Still a buy at 30x
Even after the run, Lilly traded at about 30x forward earnings on Nov. 2, below its 40x five-year average and less than half its 67x peak in October 2023:
Bottom line: a company selling more doses at lower prices with wider margins is worth paying 30x for. That makes Lilly a buy here, as long as 2027 expectations stay modest until the company gives guidance.
Lilly’s Dec. 7 Innovation Day is the next test, followed by its first 2027 guidance and the retatrutide filing planned for early 2027.
So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
