Key Takeaways:
- Dutch Bros stock could reasonably reach $98/share by the end of 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 67% from today’s price of $58/share, with an annualized return of 24% over the next 2.4 years.
- Dutch Bros operates as a fast-growing drive-thru beverage concept with over 1,000 locations, targeting 2,029 shops by 2029 and a long-term opportunity of 7,000 locations.
Dutch Bros (BROS) is a specialty coffee and beverage company that has evolved from a single pushcart in Oregon to one of the fastest-growing restaurant concepts in America, serving customers through a unique drive-thru-focused model that emphasizes speed, quality, and exceptional hospitality.
Through its network of over 1,000 company-operated and franchised locations across 19 states, Dutch Bros has created a differentiated experience centered around customizable beverages, outstanding customer service delivered by passionate “Broistas,” and a strong culture of community engagement and philanthropy.
Dutch Bros benefits from its distinctive positioning in the highly competitive beverage market, with a unique value proposition that combines premium-sized drinks, personalized service, and competitive pricing, while building customer loyalty through its rapidly growing Dutch Rewards program and innovative product offerings.
With transformative growth initiatives including mobile ordering, expanded food offerings, throughput improvements, and an ambitious expansion strategy supported by a deep pipeline of internal employees who can become franchise operators, Dutch Bros continues to capture market share while building sustainable competitive advantages.
With impressive revenue growth momentum and multiple layers of same-store sales growth drivers, Dutch Bros maintains its position as a category leader while executing on a clear path to scale from 1,000 to potentially 7,000 locations nationwide.
Here’s why BROS stock could return 24% annually through 2027 and continue delivering strong performance through 2030.
Try TIKR’s Valuation Model today for FREE (It’s the easiest way to find undervalued stocks) >>>
What the Model Says for BROS Stock
We analyzed the upside for BROS stock using valuation assumptions based on analysts’ consensus estimates.
Wall Street believes Dutch Bros could benefit from its aggressive unit growth strategy and multiple same-store sales growth initiatives across mobile ordering, food expansion, and operational improvements.
Based on estimates of 23% annual revenue growth, 11% operating margins, and normalized valuation multiples, the model projects BROS stock could rise from $58/share to $98/share.
That represents a 67% total return and a 24% annualized return over the next 2.4 years.
Value Dutch Bros with TIKR’s Valuation Model today for FREE (Find undervalued stocks fast) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Dutch Bros’ stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 23%
Dutch Bros delivered exceptional Q1 results with 29% revenue growth, driven by strong unit expansion (30 new shops opened) and healthy same-store sales growth of 4.7%, including impressive transaction growth of 3.7%.
Dutch Bros expects continued momentum from its goal of opening at least 160 system shops in 2025, representing 16% unit growth, combined with multiple same-store sales drivers still in early stages.
We used a 23% forecast reflecting Dutch Bros’ ambitious expansion timeline toward 2,029 shops by 2029, while incorporating foundational transaction-driving initiatives, including mobile ordering (currently 11% penetration), expanded food testing, and enhanced marketing efforts through paid advertising and Dutch Rewards program optimization.
2. Operating Margins: 11%
Dutch Bros demonstrates improving operational efficiency with Q1 adjusted EBITDA growth of 20%, benefiting from sales leverage and disciplined cost management despite commodity inflation pressures.
A focus on throughput improvements, labor optimization, and G&A leverage as they scale toward their long-term unit targets positions them for expanding margins over time.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 75x
BROS stock trades at premium multiples reflecting its position as one of the fastest-growing restaurant concepts with notable runway for expansion and same-store sales growth.
We maintain elevated valuation levels given Dutch Bros’ unique market position, strong unit economics, early-stage growth initiatives, and substantial long-term expansion opportunity in an underpenetrated market.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
TIKR’s valuation tool allows investors to test a wide range of outcomes based on how BROS stock performs through 2030 under different scenarios (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Increased competition and execution challenges → 18% annual returns
- Mid Case: Successful multi-layer growth strategy and steady expansion → 25% annual returns
- High Case: Accelerated unit growth and food/mobile success → 32% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Dutch Bros stock offers attractive returns, while the upside scenario could deliver exceptional performance if the coffee chain successfully executes its 2,029 by 2029 vision and captures incremental opportunities from food, mobile ordering, and operational improvements.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for any stock (It’s free!) >>>
Wall Street Analysts Are Bullish on These 5 Undervalued Compounders With Market-Beating Potential
TIKR just released a new free report on 5 compounders that appear undervalued, have beaten the market in the past, and could continue to outperform on a 1-5 year timeline based on analysts’ estimates.
Inside, you’ll get a breakdown of 5 high-quality businesses with:
- Strong revenue growth and durable competitive advantages
- Attractive valuations based on forward earnings and expected earnings growth
- Long-term upside potential backed by analyst forecasts and TIKR’s valuation models
These are the kinds of stocks that can deliver massive long-term returns, especially if you catch them while they’re still trading at a discount.
Whether you’re a long-term investor or just looking for great businesses trading below fair value, this report will help you zero in on high-upside opportunities.
Click here to sign up for TIKR and get our full report on 5 undervalued compounders completely free.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
