Key Takeaways
- DoorDash shares fell 10% in a week, nearly all of it after Amazon made Uber Eats its restaurant delivery partner for Prime on Nov. 5.
- Prime has offered free delivery through Grubhub since 2022, and DoorDash grew right through it, so the switch looks like a smaller threat than the drop suggests.
- The stock trades near a five-year low on forward earnings, and Uber’s early-February report is the first read on Prime orders.
DoorDash (DASH) is down 10% in the past week, almost all of it on one morning’s news. At 6:00 a.m. ET on Nov. 5, Amazon (AMZN) and Uber (UBER) said US Prime members now get a $0 delivery fee on Uber Eats restaurant orders of $25 or more, placed right on Amazon. Uber Eats takes Grubhub’s old spot as Prime’s restaurant partner.
Uber is signing the big names
The company came in with momentum: its Delivery gross bookings rose 22% to $28.5 billion in the third quarter. Then on Nov. 9, McDonald’s named Uber its preferred delivery partner for orders in its own app, across 14 markets.
Both deals work the same way: the brand keeps the customer, and Uber brings the couriers. As a result, a Prime member ordering dinner on Amazon never opens DoorDash’s app or sees the ads DoorDash sells there.
Prime has bundled free delivery before
Amazon has offered Prime members a free Grubhub+ membership since 2022. DoorDash’s yearly revenue roughly doubled over that stretch, from $6.58 billion in 2022 to $13.7 billion in 2025.
Its third quarter set records, too: 993 million orders, up 28%, and revenue up 34% to $4.6 billion (23% excluding Deliveroo). DoorDash took 59% of delivery-app spending in the quarter, against 18% for Uber Eats, according to Consumer Edge card data.
All of that came before Uber Eats showed up on Amazon. But analysts still expect normalized EPS to nearly double, from $5.10 in 2025 to $9.91 in 2028:
That’s even with the 2027 estimate slipping to $7.63, from $8.25 in late October.
TIKR tracks 45 analysts on DoorDash. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on DoorDash, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See DoorDash’s Analyst Ratings
The discount looks too steep
DoorDash trades at about 26x forward earnings, just above its five-year low of 25x and well below its three-year average of 39x.
Prime members could still move their dinner orders to Uber Eats for good. Still, investors are pricing in a share loss that hasn’t shown up in a single reported number. I think the selloff went too far.
Uber’s fourth-quarter report in early February will show how many Prime orders Uber Eats is winning, and a big jump in its Delivery bookings would change my mind.
So what is DoorDash stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what DoorDash could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
