Key Takeaways:
- Coupang delivered strong Q2 2025 results with 16% revenue growth while expanding margins across Product Commerce.
- Coupang stock could reach $42/share by December 2027, based on valuation model assumptions.
- This represents total returns of 29% from today’s price of $32/share, with 12% annualized returns over 2.2 years
Coupang (CPNG) is strengthening its market position through operational excellence in Korea while aggressively scaling its Taiwan operations, which are outperforming even the most optimistic internal forecasts.
The company operates through two main segments: Product Commerce (core Korean e-commerce, including Rocket delivery, Fresh groceries, and FLC marketplace) and Developing Offerings (Taiwan e-commerce, Coupang Eats food delivery, and Coupang Play streaming), serving millions of customers across Asia.
Core offerings include same-day and next-day delivery through Rocket, fresh groceries and meal kits, third-party marketplace fulfillment (FLC), restaurant delivery through Eats, and streaming content through Play, all delivered through integrated logistics infrastructure.
Coupang reported Q2 consolidated revenue of $8.5 billion, up 16% year-over-year (19% in constant currency). It generated $428 million in adjusted EBITDA with margins expanding over 50 basis points to 5% while investing aggressively in Taiwan and other developing offerings.
Product Commerce gross profit margins hit a record 32.6%, up nearly 230 basis points year-over-year. Product Commerce adjusted EBITDA margins reached 9%, expanding 80 basis points year-over-year and over 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter.
Taiwan operations are experiencing explosive growth. Q2 revenues surged 54% quarter-over-quarter, more than double the pace from two quarters ago. Year-over-year revenue growth exceeded triple digits, with Q3 expected to show even higher growth rates.
Product Commerce active customers increased by 10%, accompanied by a significant rise in revenue per active customer. Even the most mature customer cohorts continue to demonstrate robust double-digit spending increases, driven by an expanding selection and improved service levels.
Coupang stock has been publicly traded since March 2021 and is now demonstrating a path to sustainable profitability while maintaining high growth rates across multiple markets.
Here’s why Coupang stock could deliver attractive returns through 2027 as the company scales Taiwan operations while expanding Product Commerce margins toward 10%+ levels.
See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for Coupang stock (It’s free) >>>
What the Model Says for Coupang Stock
We analyzed Coupang’s potential using valuation assumptions based on its Taiwan growth trajectory, Product Commerce margin expansion runway, and operational leverage opportunities from automation and AI investments.
Investors see a significant opportunity given Coupang’s dominant market position in Korea (still a small share of the total retail market), its explosive growth in Taiwan following similar patterns to its early Korean operations, and a straightforward path to consolidated EBITDA margins exceeding 10% over time.
Based on estimates of 15% annual revenue growth, 4% operating margins, and a P/E valuation of 50x, the model projects Coupang stock could rise from $32/share to $42/share.
That represents a 29% total return, or 12% annualized return over 2.2 years.
Value Coupang stock with TIKR’s Valuation Model today for FREE (Find undervalued stocks fast) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Coupang stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 15%
Coupang reported Q2 constant currency revenue growth of 19% with Product Commerce growing 17% and Developing Offerings accelerating 33%.
The company has delivered strong historical growth, with 24.1% growth over the past year and an 18% compound annual growth rate over the last three years.
Management maintained full-year guidance of approximately 20% constant-currency consolidated growth, demonstrating confidence despite macroeconomic uncertainties in Korea.
We used a 15% forecast, reflecting Coupang’s balanced approach to sustainable growth, while making significant investments in Taiwan and other regions that will drive future revenue acceleration.
2. Operating Margins:4%
Coupang achieved consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins of 5% in Q2, up over 50 basis points year-over-year despite aggressive investments in Taiwan. Product Commerce segment margins reached 9%, demonstrating the profit potential of the mature Korean operations.
The company targets long-term consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins of more than 10%, with Product Commerce leading the way.
Margin expansion drivers include the implementation of automation and AI (already seeing 50% of new code written by AI in early tests), supply chain optimization, growth in margin-accretive categories such as Fresh and FLC, and operational leverage as newer offerings scale.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 50x
Coupang trades at a current P/E of 82.7x, which is elevated due to the company’s investment phase. However, CPNG stock is forecast to expand adjusted earnings from $0.22 per share in 2024 to $1.54 per share in 2029, indicating an annual growth rate of 48%.
The valuation reflects Coupang’s position as the dominant e-commerce player in Korea with significant optionality in Taiwan and other markets, strong execution track record, and a clear path to margin expansion as investments mature.
Long-term competitive advantages, including a dense logistics infrastructure, customer loyalty (across all cohorts, showing double-digit spending growth), category leadership in Fresh and fast delivery, and a proven ability to scale new markets, should support premium valuations as profitability inflects.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for CPNG stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on execution and market conditions: (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Taiwan growth disappoints and margin expansion stalls → 10% annual returns
- Mid Case: Taiwan scales successfully and Product Commerce reaches 10%+ margins → 17% annual returns
- High Case: Taiwan exceeds Korea’s trajectory and developing offerings turn profitable faster → 23% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, Coupang stock offers reasonable returns supported by a dominant Korea market position and strong cash generation from Product Commerce operations.
The upside scenario could deliver strong performance if Taiwan follows or exceeds Korea’s historical trajectory while Product Commerce margins expand beyond 10% and other developing offerings (Eats, Play) reach profitability.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for any stock (It’s free!) >>>
Wall Street Analysts Are Bullish on These 5 Undervalued Compounders With Market-Beating Potential
TIKR just released a new free report on 5 compounders that appear undervalued, have beaten the market in the past, and could continue to outperform on a 1-5 year timeline based on analysts’ estimates.
Inside, you’ll get a breakdown of 5 high-quality businesses with:
- Strong revenue growth and durable competitive advantages
- Attractive valuations based on forward earnings and expected earnings growth
- Long-term upside potential backed by analyst forecasts and TIKR’s valuation models
These are the kinds of stocks that can deliver massive long-term returns, especially if you catch them while they’re still trading at a discount.
Whether you’re a long-term investor or just looking for great businesses trading below fair value, this report will help you zero in on high-upside opportunities.
Click here to sign up for TIKR and get your free copy of TIKR’s 5 AI Compounders report today.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
