Earnings Updates

Chipotle Stock Tanks Over 9% After it Cuts Same-Store Sales Forecast

Aditya Raghunath
Aditya Raghunath4 minute read
Reviewed by: Thomas Richmond
Last updated Jul 24, 2025

Key Stats for Chipotle Stock

  • Price Change for Chipotle stock: -10%
  • Current Share Price: $48
  • 52-Week High: $67
  • CMG Stock Price Target: $60

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What Happened?

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock plunged 9% after it reported disappointing second-quarter results and slashed its full-year same-store sales guidance.

The burrito chain now expects flat same-store sales growth for 2025, down from its previous forecast of low-single-digit growth, marking the second consecutive quarter of guidance cuts.

CMG’s Q2 same-store sales declined 4%, worse than the expected 2.9% decrease and a sharp deterioration from Q1’s modest 0.4% decline.

While revenue of $3.06 billion missed Wall Street’s estimate of $3.11 billion, earnings per share of $0.33 were in line with consensus forecasts.

CEO Scott Boatwright attributed the weakness to continued consumer pressures, with May being particularly challenging as it paralleled declining consumer sentiment.

However, he noted that trends began improving in June with the launch of summer marketing initiatives, including the popular Adobo Ranch dip and the “Summer of Extras” loyalty program.

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What the Market Is Telling Us About CMG Stock

The steep decline in CMG stock suggests investors are concerned about Chipotle’s ability to maintain its historically strong growth trajectory amid a challenging consumer environment.

Despite management’s confidence that trends are turning around with positive comparable sales (comps) returning in June and July, the market appears focused on the near-term headwinds rather than its long-term potential.

Chipotle Stock Valuation Model (TIKR)

Boatwright emphasized that there’s “no smoking gun” indicating fundamental business issues, attributing the slowdown primarily to macro factors affecting lower-income consumers.

Chipotle maintains its long-term targets of mid-single-digit same-store sales growth and an average unit volume of $4 million, but investors may need to see more consistent proof of recovery before regaining confidence.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!

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