Key Takeaways
- Strategy stock has lost 48% over the past year, and Cantor Fitzgerald’s Overweight rating and $208 price target sit 66% above Monday’s close.
- Cantor’s target rests almost entirely on bitcoin reaching $112,000 within 12 months, about 50% above where it traded on Monday.
- Wall Street’s average target has fallen from $517 to $233 over the past year, and analysts’ earnings estimates for Strategy rise and fall with bitcoin.
- With bitcoin now below Strategy’s average cost per coin, $208 looks like the best case, and it needs a big bitcoin rally within a year.
Strategy (MSTR) stock closed at $125.59 on Monday, Nov. 9, down 48% over the past year as bitcoin dragged it lower. Cantor Fitzgerald still sees 66% upside, and its math is refreshingly simple.
Bitcoin Did Most of the Damage
Bitcoin fell from a 2025 high above $126,000 to about $58,700 by June 30, 2026, and Strategy’s stock went with it. In late May, STRC, the preferred stock Strategy built its funding plan around, slipped below its $100 stated amount, and Strategy stopped selling it.
Bitcoin bounced in the third quarter, but it fell below $76,000 on Nov. 5. It slid again before Monday’s open on worries that the Democratic-controlled Congress taking over in January will bring tougher crypto rules, and it’s now below the $75,456 a coin Strategy has paid on average, according to its Nov. 9 update.
Cantor’s $208 Is a Bitcoin Price
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal raised his target to $208 from $186 on Oct. 16, when he lifted his 12-month bitcoin assumption to $112,000 from $98,000. At that price, Strategy’s roughly 848,000 bitcoin would be worth about $95 billion, or 86% of the $110 billion enterprise value Cantor now puts on the company (up from $97 billion). The software business barely moves the total.
So nearly all of the $208 is bitcoin. And the stock tends to move more than the coin: bitcoin rose 43% in the third quarter, and Strategy’s stock rose 76%.
Does $208 Add Up for Strategy Stock?
Cantor is actually more cautious than most of the Street. Wall Street’s average target has more than halved over the past year, from $517 to $233:
Cantor’s $208 sits below that average and the $215 median, and the Street’s targets run from $165 to $435.
The earnings estimates are a bitcoin forecast too. Strategy’s $19.53 billion of third-quarter net income came on a $20.91 billion gain on its bitcoin, so the estimates swing with the coin:
The jump from a loss of $17.35 a share in 2026 to a profit of $17.24 in 2027 assumes bitcoin recovers. Those earnings only show up if it does.
TIKR Tracks 16 Analysts on Strategy. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Strategy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Strategy’s Analyst Ratings
I’d Want to See the Rally First
The funding side is where I get cautious. Strategy pays about $1.51 billion a year in preferred dividends and interest, and last week it sold 2.05 million new shares for $283.8 million. Most of that went into buying back STRC ($188.3 million), not bitcoin ($81.9 million). Share sales only grow bitcoin per share when the stock carries a big enough premium to its holdings, and CEO Phong Le put that premium at 1.15x on the third-quarter call. That’s below the 1.22x break-even management gave in May, a line that shifts as Strategy’s debt and preferred change.
If bitcoin gets to $112,000, I’d expect the stock to reach $208 in a hurry. But with bitcoin trading below what Strategy paid for its coins, $208 looks like the best case to me, and it needs a roughly 50% bitcoin rally within a year. First, MSCI publishes the list of companies its new index rule removes on Nov. 11, and being removed would take a steady buyer out of the stock just as Strategy leans on share sales to fund itself.
So What Is Strategy Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
