Key Stats for Axon Stock
- Current Price: $420.37
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,330
- Street Target: ~$680
- Potential Total Return: ~217%
- Annualized IRR: ~32% / year
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What Happened?
Axon Enterprise (AXON) unveiled Axon Body 5 on October 24, a body camera the company says has 25 times the AI processing power of earlier Axon cameras. It launched on the first day of the IACP 2026 police chiefs conference in Orlando. It succeeds Body 4, which Axon introduced in April 2023. Axon has not announced a price or ship date. Shares closed at $420.37 on October 23, down 25.98% from their 2025 close, so Monday, October 26 is the first session to trade on the news.
Body 5 Arrives a Year Past Axon’s Usual Camera Cycle
At a Goldman Sachs conference on September 8, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Brittany Bagley said Axon’s body cameras have “on average a 2.5-year life cycle.” She added that this “doesn’t necessarily mean that we get our products out perfectly on that schedule.” Body 5 lands about three and a half years after Body 4, roughly a year past that average.
That gap matters because Body 4 sold quickly. Axon shipped more than 100,000 Body 4 units in the second half of 2023 alone, according to its 2023 results. Axon has not said how many agencies will upgrade or when, but a large installed base has now been in the field longer than the company’s own average cycle.
The camera is built around software. Body 5 Pro adds a license-scanning camera, four front-facing speakers for Axon Assistant translations, and extra memory to run several AI tools at once. Axon also introduced Guardian, a set of AI safety alerts inside its AI Era Plan that can flag escalating encounters on Body 4 or Body 5. Availability dates for Body 5 and Guardian are still pending.
That software is where Axon’s growth is concentrated. Axon said AI Era revenue grew nearly 700% year over year in the second quarter, while total revenue rose 35%. In fiscal 2025, Software and Services revenue grew 39.6% to $1,202.67 million. That beat the 29.1% growth in Connected Devices, the segment that includes cameras, which reached $1,576.86 million.
TIKR tracks 21 analysts on Axon Enterprise. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Axon Enterprise, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Axon Enterprise’s Analyst Ratings
Bagley Put AI Adoption Ahead of Price
On September 8, Bagley said Axon reprices annually and would look at 2027 pricing over the following couple of months. On AI, she put adoption first: “As we think about the long-term game, it’s much more important that we become their AI provider and that they’re using us and that they believe we can provide their solutions than it is to necessarily take price day 1.”
That puts the Body 5 payoff in usage. A camera that runs more AI tools gives agencies more reason to buy the AI Era Plan. If Axon holds AI prices down to win adoption, though, revenue per officer could rise more slowly than the hardware upgrade suggests. The hardware carries its own cost pressure, since Bagley said rising memory costs are hitting camera margins.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $420.37
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,330
- Potential Total Return: ~217%
- Annualized IRR: ~32% / year
The TIKR mid case targets around $1,330 per share by December 31, 2030, about 217% above $420.37, or roughly 32% a year. Across the model’s ten-year forecast, earnings per share grow about 21% a year while the P/E shrinks about 6% a year. Earnings drive the return, not a higher multiple. Its revenue growth assumption of about 23% a year over that forecast sits below the roughly 31% analysts expect over the next two years, so the mid case already builds in a slowdown. The main risk is AI adoption growing faster than AI revenue, which would leave earnings short of the model’s path.
Conclusion
Axon reports third-quarter results after the close on November 5, with analysts expecting revenue near $938 million, about 32% growth. Two things would show the camera pulling AI revenue forward: a Body 5 price and ship date, and Software and Services growth that stays well ahead of Connected Devices. Software growth slipping toward the device line would suggest the upgrade isn’t showing up in sales yet.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
