Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ: TEAM) has been one of the software sector’s biggest laggards. The stock now trades near $160/share, down more than 50% from its 52-week high of $326. Strong revenue growth and sticky products like Jira and Confluence remain tailwinds, but weak profitability and execution risks have left investors cautious.
Recently, Atlassian has been active on the M&A front, announcing the $1 billion acquisition of developer intelligence platform DX and striking a deal to acquire The Browser Company, the maker of Arc and Dia. Both moves underscore Atlassian’s push to embed AI and next-generation developer tools directly into its platform, strengthening its cloud-first strategy and expanding its reach with enterprise customers.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Atlassian could trade by 2028. We have pulled together consensus targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to get a sense of the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
Unlock our Free Report: 5 AI compounders that analysts believe are undervalued and could deliver years of outperformance with accelerating AI adoption (Sign up for TIKR, it’s free) >>>
Analyst Price Targets Suggest Strong Upside
Atlassian trades at about $160/share today. The average analyst price target is $250/share, which points to around 67% upside. Forecasts show a wide spread and highlight divided sentiment:
- High estimate: $480/share
- Low estimate: $196/share
- Median target: $240/share
- Ratings: 20 Buys, 5 Outperforms, 7 Holds, 1 Underperform
It looks like analysts see plenty of room for gains, but the wide range of targets shows that conviction is mixed. For investors, this means TEAM could rally hard if growth delivers, but risks remain if profitability lags. The split outlook underlines that expectations are high and execution needs to be near flawless to unlock the full upside.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Atlassian (It’s free!) >>>
Atlassian: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals look solid, though profitability is still catching up:
- Revenue projected to grow ~18.7% annually through 2028
- Operating margins expected to expand toward 25.5%
- Shares trade at ~38x forward earnings, far below past triple-digit multiples
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests the stock could reach ~$271/share by 2028
- That implies ~70% upside, or about 21% annualized returns
These figures suggest Atlassian can keep compounding at a healthy pace if it executes on both growth and margin improvement. For investors, the valuation now looks more balanced than in the past, giving TEAM a stronger long-term profile. Still, the growth case depends heavily on the company proving it can turn recurring revenue into durable profitability, which remains its biggest hurdle.
Value stocks like Atlassian in as little as 60 seconds with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
What’s Driving the Optimism?
Atlassian continues to grow even as enterprise software spending becomes more selective. Its core products, Jira and Confluence, are embedded in workflows that companies cannot easily replace, creating sticky demand and high retention. This provides a solid foundation for recurring revenue growth.
Cloud migration is another big driver, with more customers shifting from on-premise to subscription-based models. This has supported ~20% year-over-year revenue growth and maintained strong gross margins of ~83%, which are among the best in software. Analysts also expect EPS to expand at ~19% CAGR over the next two years as operating leverage builds.
For investors, these strengths show why many still view Atlassian as a potential long-term winner. If profitability improves as forecasted, the stock could support a much higher valuation and regain investor confidence.
Bear Case: Profitability and Execution
Despite the positives, Atlassian’s profitability remains a concern. The company reported an EBIT margin of -2.5% over the last twelve months.
Execution risk also weighs heavily. If cloud adoption slows, or if enterprises cut IT spending, revenue growth could come under pressure. And without meaningful margin expansion, the valuation may struggle to hold even if topline growth remains strong.
For investors, the bear case is straightforward: Atlassian’s stock still assumes significant improvement. If the company falls short on profitability targets, the downside could be substantial, and returns may lag other high-growth software names.
Outlook for 2028: What Could Atlassian Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests Atlassian could reach about $271/share by 2028. That would represent a 70% gain from today’s level, or roughly 21% annualized returns. This outcome assumes continued double-digit revenue growth and meaningful margin expansion into the mid-20s.
While this would mark a strong rebound, the forecast already bakes in optimism. To deliver more upside, Atlassian would likely need to accelerate cloud adoption, drive higher operating leverage, or expand into new product categories that strengthen its moat. Without that, returns may be solid but not spectacular.
For investors, the stock looks like a promising compounder, but the path to outsized gains will depend on management proving it can turn growth into consistent earnings power.
AI Compounders With Massive Upside That Wall Street Is Overlooking
Everyone wants to cash in on AI. But while the crowd chases the obvious names benefiting from AI like NVIDIA, AMD, or Taiwan Semiconductor, the real opportunity may lie on the AI application layer where a handful of compounders are quietly embedding AI into products people already use every day.
TIKR just released a new free report on 5 undervalued compounders that analysts believe could deliver years of outperformance as AI adoption accelerates.
Inside the report, you’ll find:
- Businesses already turning AI into revenue and earnings growth
- Stocks trading below fair value despite strong analyst forecasts
- Unique picks most investors haven’t even considered
If you want to catch the next wave of AI winners, this report is a must-read.
Click here to sign up for TIKR and get your free copy of TIKR’s 5 AI Compounders report today.