Key Takeaways
- Archer Aviation stock is down 45% in 2026, and rival Joby Aviation has fallen even further.
- Archer’s pending deal for three Boeing businesses would add more than $200 million of yearly revenue. That’s more than analysts expect from Archer for all of 2027.
- Archer is still losing about $170 million a quarter on adjusted EBITDA, and Boeing would own about 19.75% of the company once the deal closes.
- The stock looks like dead money until the deal closes. Third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 9, are the first test.
Archer Aviation (ACHR) is down 45% in 2026. That’s in a year when it agreed to buy three businesses from Boeing (BA) and showed off Thunder, an autonomous defense aircraft developed with Anduril.
Rival Joby Aviation (JOBY) has done even worse, down 59%. That tells me the market has soured on air taxis as a group, at least while they burn far more cash than they bring in.
Archer reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 9.
Boeing’s deal is the bull case
Before the open on Aug. 10, Archer announced the deal. It will buy Boeing’s Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid, and Boeing will own about 19.75% of Archer at closing. Insitu alone brings in more than $200 million of revenue a year from drones. The antitrust waiting period ran out on Sept. 18. Archer still expects to close by the end of 2026, pending other regulatory approvals.
Analysts’ revenue estimates for Archer still start from almost nothing:
That’s $15.1 million this year and $138 million in 2027, less than Insitu brings in on its own. Once the deal closes, I’d expect those near-term estimates to move up.
TIKR tracks 9 analysts on Archer Aviation. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Archer Aviation, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Archer Aviation’s Analyst Ratings
The cash burn is the bear case
In the second quarter, Archer had $5 million of revenue and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $177 million. It ended June with $1.6 billion of liquidity, roughly two years at that pace. CFO Priya Gupta told analysts on the second-quarter call that Archer plans to keep its cash burn about flat as it takes on the new businesses.
Archer has paid its way by selling stock, and its diluted share count has climbed every year since 2021:
This year’s filings have been small by comparison. The biggest, in August, covered about 8.3 million shares paid to vendors, with no cash going to Archer. But Boeing gets paid in shares.
My read: investors expect Archer to sell more stock before air taxis or Insitu can cover the burn. That’s why the July Thunder reveal and the August Boeing deal each lifted the stock for a day. Neither double-digit gain lasted.
Joby is in the same boat
The two stocks often move as a pair. Both fell on Oct. 22, when a selloff hit speculative growth stocks, and both jumped on Oct. 27 after more buying from Cathie Wood’s ARK. They’re also fighting in court: on Oct. 2, Archer said a California federal court had dismissed some of Joby’s trade-secret and contract claims against it, along with Archer’s own counterclaims. Joby faces the same question as Archer: how long its cash lasts before its aircraft start paying their way.
Dead money until the deal closes
The average price target has slipped from $12.44 to $10.89 over the past year:
Over the same stretch, the stock lost more than half its value, so the average target is now more than double Friday’s close. Even the lowest target has risen, to $7 from $4.50. Barclays upgraded Archer with an $8 target in October, and Goldman Sachs cut its target to $7 from $8 while keeping its Neutral rating.
The way I see it, Archer is dead money until the Boeing deal closes. Those targets stayed high all year while the stock fell, so I’d want proof before betting on a bounce.
Monday is the first test. Did the burn hold near the second quarter’s level, and is the deal still on track for year-end? If both check out, I’d take the case for a bounce a lot more seriously.
So what is Archer Aviation stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
