Key Takeaways
- AMD expects about $17 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter, above Intel’s $15 billion to $16 billion forecast.
- In the third quarter of 2016, Intel’s revenue was about 12x AMD’s. Since then, AMD’s yearly revenue has grown about eightfold, while Intel’s is 11% lower.
- AMD CEO Lisa Su expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027, with data center making up more than 80% of sales.
- AMD trades at 30x forward earnings, below its three-year average of 39x.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) expects about $17 billion of revenue this quarter, plus or minus 3%. Intel (INTC) expects $15 billion to $16 billion for the same quarter, so even the low end of AMD’s range beats the high end of Intel’s.
If both forecasts hold, AMD will outsell Intel in a quarter for the first time, a point one r/stocks poster raised after AMD’s November 3 report.
A decade ago, that would have sounded absurd. Intel booked a then-record $15.8 billion of revenue in the third quarter of 2016, while AMD brought in $1.31 billion. Intel was about 12x AMD’s size.
AMD’s Data Center Chips Already Outsell Intel’s
AMD just had the biggest quarter in its history. Revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion, and data center sales nearly doubled, up 97% to $8.5 billion. Intel still had the bigger quarter at $16.5 billion, even after a 78% jump in its data center and AI sales to $7.3 billion. In the chips AI spending flows to, AMD is already the bigger seller.
On the call, Su said AMD now expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027, more than double the long-term model it set out at its November 2025 analyst day. She added that “we expect data center to be more than 80% of our total revenue in 2027.”
Before the report, analysts had modeled about 77% growth for 2027, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. TIKR’s consensus now has AMD’s revenue rising from $52.2 billion this year to $95.7 billion in 2027, an 83% jump:
The Street has caught up to Su, so AMD now has to hit her forecast just to meet expectations.
TIKR Tracks 53 Analysts on AMD. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AMD, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AMD’s Analyst Ratings
Intel Is Back Where It Was in 2016
Intel’s side of the story is a decade of running in place. Revenue climbed to a record $79.0 billion in 2021, then gave all of that gain back:
Intel’s 2025 revenue of $52.9 billion was 11% below its $59.4 billion in 2016, while AMD’s grew to $34.6 billion from $4.3 billion. This quarter’s guide has a $15.5 billion midpoint, against the $15.7 billion Intel guided to for the fourth quarter of 2016.
The PC slump also lands harder on Intel. Asked about PCs on the call, Su said “our planning assumption for 2027 is that the market will be double-digit percentage down.” PC chips are still Intel’s biggest business, at $8.1 billion last quarter, down 5%. AMD’s client sales were $2.9 billion, up 7%.
Is 30x Too Much for AMD Stock?
A second r/stocks post makes the bear case. By that poster’s count, Nvidia earned about 25x AMD’s profit over the last four quarters but is worth only about 6x as much, so AMD holders are paying for a catch-up that hasn’t happened. That math runs on trailing profits, mostly earned before AMD’s ramp began. Forward earnings tell a different story:
At 30x as of November 6, AMD trades below its three-year average of 39x and at less than half its 67x peak on June 30.
The Bottom Line on AMD Stock
AMD is about to become the bigger chipmaker by sales, and 30x forward earnings doesn’t look like overpaying for that. Timing is the risk. The 2027 numbers need Helios racks shipping at scale and customers getting data centers built and powered on schedule, and the estimates now leave no room for a slip. AMD’s fourth-quarter report, expected in early February, will show whether the $17 billion quarter happened.
So What Is AMD Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
