Key Stats for AeroVironment Stock
- Price Change: -15.8%
- Current Price: $331
- Advanced Model Price Target: $123
Is the selling overdone? Run your own Bear Case for AVAV on TIKR (It’s free) →
What Happened?
Shares of AeroVironment (AVAV) collapsed nearly 16% on Wednesday, closing at $331.
The drop came after the U.S. Government issued a sudden “Stop Work Order” on the company’s classified BADGER phased array antenna program.
This news effectively halts a revenue stream that investors had priced in as guaranteed growth.
The order puts the massive SCAR (Satellite Communication Augmentation Resource) contract in limbo. It stokes fears that the Department of Defense is “shifting procurement practices” away from cost-plus contracts.
Is AeroVironment Undervalued Today?
The panic is driven by the fact that management had just touted this program as a primary growth engine.
In the Q2 earnings call, CEO Wahid Nawabi called the BADGER awards a “historic record achievement.”
He also labeled it a “tremendous growth opportunity” for the company.
However, TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model warns that if this revenue disappears, the stock has massive downside.
- Advanced Model Price Target: $123
- Current Price: $331
- Potential Downside: -62.8%
The model assumes a “Bear Case” where revenue growth slows to 2.0% annually as the satellite segment stalls.
Conclusion: The market was pricing AVAV for perfection; this “Black Swan” event suggests the fair value could be $123 if the contract is not reinstated.
See the full AVAV forecast on TIKR >>>
How Much Upside Does AeroVironment Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
