[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"app-context":3,"blog-western-digital-just-hit-its-deepest-drawdown-in-a-year-the-street-target-still-sits-23-higher-ZH":150},{"languages":4,"categories":41,"products":125,"competitors":149},[5,9,13,17,21,25,29,33,37],{"name":6,"code":7,"id":8},"English","EN","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZW4=",{"name":10,"code":11,"id":12},"Español","ES","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZXM=",{"name":14,"code":15,"id":16},"Português","PT","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6cHQ=",{"name":18,"code":19,"id":20},"日本語","JA","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6amE=",{"name":22,"code":23,"id":24},"한국어","KO","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6a28=",{"name":26,"code":27,"id":28},"Deutsch","DE","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZGU=",{"name":30,"code":31,"id":32},"Italiano","IT","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6aXQ=",{"name":34,"code":35,"id":36},"Français","FR","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZnI=",{"name":38,"code":39,"id":40},"中文 (中国)","ZH","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6emg=",[42,73,104],{"icon":43,"slug":44,"title":45,"description":46,"featuredLinks":47},"mingcute:stock-line","stock-market-basics","Stock Market Basics","\u003Cp>Beginners' guides and practical tips for understanding stock market investing.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[48,53,58,63,68],{"url":49,"title":50,"description":51,"ogImage":52},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-makes-stocks-go-up-and-down","What Makes Stocks Go Up and Down | TIKR.com","Understanding what makes stock prices go up and down can help investors better navigate investing. Click to learn more!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-makes-stocks-go-up-and-down-banner\u002FWhat-makes-stocks-go-up-and-down-banner.jpg?_i=AA",{"url":54,"title":55,"description":56,"ogImage":57},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fdividend-yield-meaning-formula-example","Dividend Yield: Meaning, Formula, Example | Tikr.com Blog | TIKR.com","The dividend yield is a key metric for investors looking to gauge the income potential of their investments. It measures how much a company pays out in","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FDividend-yield\u002FDividend-yield.png?_i=AA",{"url":59,"title":60,"description":61,"ogImage":62},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fmarket-capitalization-definition-formula-and-why-it-matters","Market Capitalization: Definition, Formula, and Why It Matters | TIKR.com","Long-term investors often look at various valuation metrics when deciding whether to invest in a particular company. One helpful metric to evaluate is","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FMarket-Capitalization-Definition-Formula-and-Why-It-Matters\u002FMarket-Capitalization-Definition-Formula-and-Why-It-Matters.png?_i=AA",{"url":64,"title":65,"description":66,"ogImage":67},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fearnings-per-share-definition-formula-and-why-eps-matters","Earnings Per Share: Definition, Formula, and Why EPS Matters | TIKR.com","Earnings Per Share (EPS) represents the portion of a company's net earnings allocated to each share. Click to learn more!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FEPS-Defiinition-formula-and-why-EPS-matters-1\u002FEPS-Defiinition-formula-and-why-EPS-matters-1.png?_i=AA",{"url":69,"title":70,"description":71,"ogImage":72},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-stock-price-target","What Is a Stock Price Target? | TIKR.com","A price target is a stock's estimated future price. It can help investors quickly find undervalued stocks. Learn more now!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-Stock-Price-Target-2\u002FWhat-is-a-Stock-Price-Target-2.png?_i=AA",{"icon":74,"slug":75,"title":76,"description":77,"featuredLinks":78},"material-symbols:analytics-outline","fundamental-analysis","Fundamental Analysis","\u003Cp>In-depth resources and financial metrics to help you evaluate companies like a pro.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[79,84,89,94,99],{"url":80,"title":81,"description":82,"ogImage":83},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fshare-repurchase-why-do-companies-buy-back-their-stock","Share Repurchase: Why Do Companies Buy Back Their Stock? | TIKR.com","Share repurchases, or share buybacks, have gained popularity in the last two decades. According to a report from Goldman Sachs, stock buybacks initiated","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR-BLOG-COVER-PHOTOS-3_544a7f4e\u002FTIKR-BLOG-COVER-PHOTOS-3_544a7f4e.png?_i=AA",{"url":85,"title":86,"description":87,"ogImage":88},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-return-on-invested-capital","What Is a Good Return on Invested Capital? | TIKR.com","Learning about Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) can help investors spot highly profitable stocks that can drive long-term returns. Learn more now!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-Invested-capital\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-Invested-capital.png?_i=AA",{"url":90,"title":91,"description":92,"ogImage":93},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-return-on-equity-ratio","What is a Good Return on Equity Ratio | Tikr.com Blog | TIKR.com","Return on Equity (ROE) is a financial ratio that reflects a company's profitability in relation to the equity invested by shareholders. It basically","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-equity-ratio-1\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-equity-ratio-1.jpg?_i=AA",{"url":95,"title":96,"description":97,"ogImage":98},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-p-e-ratio","What Is a Good P\u002FE Ratio? | TIKR.com","Financial analysts and investors look at various metrics before deciding whether a stock is a buy. One of the metrics is the price-to-earnings ratio (P\u002FE","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-good-PE-ratio-1\u002FWhat-is-a-good-PE-ratio-1.jpg?_i=AA",{"url":100,"title":101,"description":102,"ogImage":103},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Ftop-6-metrics-for-investing-in-reits","Top 6 Metrics for Investing in REITs | TIKR.com","Real estate has been one of the greatest asset classes for wealth creation in history, and investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) can allow","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FGroup-10\u002FGroup-10.png?_i=AA",{"icon":105,"slug":106,"title":107,"description":108,"featuredLinks":109},"hugeicons:investigation","investing-lingo","Investing Lingo","\u003Cp>A comprehensive glossary of investing terms and jargon so you can speak the language of the markets confidently.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[110,115,120],{"url":111,"title":112,"description":113,"ogImage":114},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fenterprise-value-definition-and-calculation","Enterprise Value: Definition and Calculation | Tikr.com Blog | TIKR.com","Enterprise value (EV) is a financial metric that offers a comprehensive snapshot of a company's total value. Unlike market capitalization which solely","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FEnterprise-Value-Definition-and-Calculation_37576e40\u002FEnterprise-Value-Definition-and-Calculation_37576e40.png?_i=AA",{"url":116,"title":117,"description":118,"ogImage":119},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Febitda-definition-formula-how-to-use-it","EBITDA: Definition, Formula, How to Use It | TIKR.com","EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It's a financial metric commonly used to evaluate a company's financial","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FEBITDA-Definition-Formula-How-to-Use-It\u002FEBITDA-Definition-Formula-How-to-Use-It.png?_i=AA",{"url":121,"title":122,"description":123,"ogImage":124},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-the-free-cash-flow-formula-and-why-does-it-matter","What is the Free Cash Flow Formula and Why Does It Matter | TIKR.com","Free cash flow, or FCF, is the cash a company generates after it accounts for outflows required to maintain business operations and support capital","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-the-free-cash-flow-formula\u002FWhat-is-the-free-cash-flow-formula.png?_i=AA",[126,130,134,137,141,145],{"slug":127,"modified":128,"title":129},"valuation-model-builder","2025-07-03T00:18:53","Value Stocks Quickly and Accurately",{"slug":131,"modified":132,"title":133},"stock-portfolio-tracking","2024-12-02T22:21:28","Monitor Your Portfolio",{"slug":75,"modified":135,"title":136},"2025-01-21T22:10:52","Instantly Analyze Companies with In-Depth Metrics",{"slug":138,"modified":139,"title":140},"stock-screener","2024-12-02T22:13:31","Find the Best Stocks to Buy",{"slug":142,"modified":143,"title":144},"investor-stock-portfolio","2025-01-21T22:02:56","Follow Investment Moves of Top Investors",{"slug":146,"modified":147,"title":148},"analyze-stocks","2025-07-23T16:04:24","Analyze Stocks",[],{"post":151,"seo":186,"relatedPosts":193,"suggestedPosts":194},{"id":152,"title":153,"date":154,"modified":155,"excerpt":156,"content":157,"wordCount":158,"lang":159,"uri":160,"slug":161,"cloudinaryAssetId":162,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":163,"featuredImageMetadata":164,"author":166,"editor":172,"categories":177,"relatedPosts":183,"seo":184},117698,"Western Digital Just Hit Its Deepest Drawdown in a Year. The Street Target Still Sits 23% Higher","2026-07-16T18:50:00","2026-07-17T01:15:16","\u003Cp>Western Digital just set its deepest drawdown of the past year at 31.14%. The Street’s mean target still sits near $630, well above the price. The gap between them comes down to one number in the August print.\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\n\u003Ch3 id=\"h-k-ey-stats-for-western-digital-stock\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">K\u003Cstrong>ey Stats\u003C\u002Fstrong> for \u003Cstrong>Western Digital Stock\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Current Price: \u003C\u002Fstrong>$513.84\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Target Price (Mid):\u003C\u002Fstrong> ~$1,220\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Street Target: \u003C\u002Fstrong>~$630\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Potential Total Return:\u003C\u002Fstrong> ~137%\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Annualized IRR:\u003C\u002Fstrong> ~24% \u002F year\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Max Drawdown:\u003C\u002Fstrong> 31.14% on 7\u002F15\u002F26\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cem>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\"> >>>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-what-happened\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Happened?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cstrong>Western Digital Corporation (\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fstock\u002Fabout?cid=314057&tid=2664030&?ref=tikrblog\">\u003Cstrong>WDC\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cstrong>) \u003C\u002Fstrong>closed at $513.84, down 8.78% in a session, and set its deepest drawdown of the past twelve months in the process: 31.14%, dated July 15, 2026. Shares sit roughly 36% below the $799.87 they reached at the 52-week high.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Street has not followed the price down. The mean target across covering analysts stands at around $630 as of July 15, up from around $575 on June 30, per TIKR. That gap is the whole question. Either analysts are slow to mark down a cycle that has turned, or the market is repricing a business whose economics have not changed.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The decline was not a Western Digital story. Memory and storage names sold off together as traders took profits after a violent run, with Micron and SanDisk falling alongside it. The proximate trigger was a reversal in SK Hynix, which gave back a chunk of a 27% single-day surge, and the sector followed. A separate headline, the Shanghai listing of Chinese DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies at roughly $4.3 billion, added to the mood. What none of it touched was the thing that actually sets Western Digital’s earnings.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-a-stock-up-sixfold-in-a-year-does-not-need-a-reason-to-fall-9\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>A Stock Up Sixfold in a Year Does Not Need a Reason to Fall 9%\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some context makes the drawdown less mysterious. Western Digital had risen enormously into July, and it was trading well below its 20-day moving average, the profile of a reset after an overheated run rather than a thesis breaking. When a stock has moved that far that fast, profit-taking does not require a catalyst proportionate to the decline. It requires an excuse, and the memory complex supplied several at once.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is worth being precise about what the CXMT listing does and does not mean here, because the two stocks fell together on it. CXMT makes DRAM, the short-term working memory inside servers. Western Digital has not made a memory chip since February 21, 2025, when it completed the separation of its flash business into Sandisk and became a pure-play maker of hard disk drives, the spinning magnetic drives that store data permanently. A new DRAM competitor is a real problem for DRAM suppliers. Its read-through to nearline hard drive pricing is indirect at best.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That does not make the selloff irrational. It makes it a sector trade, and Western Digital is a passenger in it. The question a buyer has to answer is whether the passenger’s own economics survived the week, and for that, the relevant testimony is on the record.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Cimg width=\"3023\" height=\"2015\" data-public-id=\"images\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_3023,h_2015,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225512\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp?_i=AA\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-post-117698 wp-image-117741\" data-format=\"webp\" data-transformations=\"f_webp,q_auto\" data-version=\"1784225512\" data-seo=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225512\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp?_i=AA 3023w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225512\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp?_i=AA 600w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1200,h_800,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225512\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp?_i=AA 1200w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1400,h_933,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225512\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp?_i=AA 1400w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_300,h_200,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225512\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-Drawdowns_117741e2849.webp?_i=AA 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3023px) 100vw, 3023px\" \u002F>\u003Cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Western Digital Drawdowns \u003Cstrong>(\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fmarkets?fid=1&?ref=tikrblog\">TIKR\u003C\u002Fa>)\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">See historical and forward estimates for Western Digital stock (It’s free!) >>>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-the-spread-that-decides-everything\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cstrong>The Spread That Decides Everything\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CFO Kris Sennesael gave the number that matters at the 2026 Evercore Global TMT Conference on June 3, and it was not a demand number. On costs, he said they decline “on or about 10% year-over-year on a cost per terabyte basis” over the mid to long term. On price, he said that last quarter “our average ASP per terabyte was up 9% on a year-over-year basis.”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Price up 9%. Cost down 10%. That spread produces what he described next: incremental\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-gross-margin-definition-formula\"> gross margins\u003C\u002Fa> “in the 70%, 75% range.” The mechanism is almost embarrassingly simple, and he explained it: “it doesn’t cost that much more to produce a 40-terabyte drive versus a 32-terabyte drive.” Same assembly, more capacity, better price, lower unit cost. This industry historically ran price per terabyte down 10% a year. The reversal is the re-rating.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The customer structure is why it holds. As Sennesael put it, “90% of my business is cloud, still 5% consumer and 5% client.” Those hyperscalers are asking for supply agreements, some stretching to 2032, and placing firm orders 52 weeks ahead because that is how long a drive takes to build.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pushback worth taking seriously came from Sennesael himself, unintentionally. Those long-term agreements carry “a volume component and a price component in there with some flexibility.” Flexibility runs both directions. If hyperscaler spending cools, that is the clause where it shows up, and a 70% incremental margin unwinds faster than it built.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-what-21x-forward-ebitda-is-actually-pricing\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>What 21x Forward EBITDA Is Actually Pricing\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The multiple has done most of the adjusting already. Western Digital trades at around 21x NTM\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fenterprise-value-definition-and-calculation\"> EV\u002FEBITDA\u003C\u002Fa> as of July 15, down from around 28x on June 30, against a trailing figure near 45x. Forward\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-p-e-ratio\"> P\u002FE\u003C\u002Fa> sits at around 32x on roughly $16 of forward normalized earnings per share. The drawdown was multiple compression, not an earnings revision.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Against peers, the discount is narrower than bulls might hope. Seagate Technology (STX), the closest comparable and the only other scaled Western supplier, trades at around 25x NTM EV\u002FEBITDA and around 33x forward earnings, so Western Digital’s roughly 21x and 32x are a modest discount to a company facing identical demand. Dell Technologies (DELL) is far cheaper at around 15x, but Dell integrates systems rather than manufacturing storage media, and the margin structures are not comparable. The Seagate line is the one that counts, and the discount there is defensible against a forward two-year revenue\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fcompound-annual-growth-rate-cagr-formula-what-it-means\"> CAGR\u003C\u002Fa> of around 38%.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One item belongs in view even though it proves nothing. Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing three months, including a roughly $8.2 million sale by CEO Irving Tan on May 1 at around $412, per aggregated filings data. Executives sell for liquidity, taxes, and scheduled plans, and Sennesael himself made a small open-market purchase in March. Selling into a sixfold run is what most people would do. It is context, not a signal.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Cimg width=\"3023\" height=\"2015\" data-public-id=\"images\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_3023,h_2015,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225518\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp?_i=AA\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-post-117698 wp-image-117742\" data-format=\"webp\" data-transformations=\"f_webp,q_auto\" data-version=\"1784225518\" data-seo=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225518\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp?_i=AA 3023w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225518\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp?_i=AA 600w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1200,h_800,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225518\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp?_i=AA 1200w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1400,h_933,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225518\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp?_i=AA 1400w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_300,h_200,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225518\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA\u002FTIKR.com_Western-Digital-Corporation-WDC-NTM-Total-Enterprise-Value-_-EBITDA.webp?_i=AA 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3023px) 100vw, 3023px\" \u002F>\u003Cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Western Digital NTM EV\u002FEBITDA \u003Cstrong>(\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fmarkets?fid=1&?ref=tikrblog\">TIKR\u003C\u002Fa>)\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">See how Western Digital performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-tikr-advanced-model-analysis\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>TIKR Advanced Model Analysis\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Current Price:\u003C\u002Fstrong> $513.84\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Target Price (Mid):\u003C\u002Fstrong> ~$1,220\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Potential Total Return: \u003C\u002Fstrong>~137%\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>Annualized IRR: \u003C\u002Fstrong>~24% \u002F year\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Cimg width=\"4968\" height=\"4084\" data-public-id=\"images\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1.webp\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_4968,h_4084,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225537\u002Fimages\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1.webp?_i=AA\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-post-117698 wp-image-117743\" data-format=\"webp\" data-transformations=\"f_webp,q_auto\" data-version=\"1784225537\" data-seo=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225537\u002Fimages\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1.webp?_i=AA 4968w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1200,h_986,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225537\u002Fimages\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1.webp?_i=AA 1200w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1400,h_1151,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225537\u002Fimages\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1.webp?_i=AA 1400w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_300,h_247,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784225537\u002Fimages\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1\u002FWDC_valuation_model-1_1177433d3b1.webp?_i=AA 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4968px) 100vw, 4968px\" \u002F>\u003Cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Western Digital Advanced Valuation Model \u003Cstrong>(\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fmarkets?fid=1&?ref=tikrblog\">TIKR\u003C\u002Fa>)\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Western Digital stock (It’s free!) >>>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using the mid case, realized at 6\u002F30\u002F30, the TIKR model puts fair value at around $1,220, roughly 137% above the July 15 close over about four years.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two drivers carry the roughly 21% revenue CAGR: the migration to higher-capacity drives, where 40-terabyte ePMR units are in qualification, and 44-terabyte HAMR drives sit behind them, and the hyperscaler long-term agreements that convert exabyte growth Sennesael pegs above 25% into visible orders. The margin driver is the price-up, cost-down spread, which the model carries to a mid-case net income margin of around 45%.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The primary risk is that the spread is a cycle rather than a structure. If cloud capital spending decelerates, the price flexibility inside those agreements gets used against Western Digital, and the margin and the multiple compress together.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Upside: pricing holds, the 40-terabyte ramp lands on schedule, and free cash flow compounds toward the mid case. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Downside: Capex cools, ASP per terabyte reverts to its historical decline, and a stock at 21x forward EBITDA finds out how far a cyclical multiple can fall.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-conclusion\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>Conclusion\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">August 5 is the test. Western Digital reports Q4 fiscal 2026 after the close, and management guided to $3.65 billion in revenue, plus or minus $100 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 51% to 52%.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Watch the margin line, not the revenue line. Revenue growth near 40% is already priced. A gross margin inside or above the guided 51% to 52% band means the price-up, cost-down spread survived a quarter in which the memory complex talked itself into a cycle top, and July looks like a sector trade that caught a stock with no cushion. A print below 51% means the flexibility inside those hyperscaler agreements has started moving in the customer’s favor, and targets near $630 come down to meet the price instead.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-should-you-invest-in-western-digital\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Should You Invest in Western Digital?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pull up \u003Cstrong>Western Digital\u003C\u002Fstrong>, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can build a free watchlist to track \u003Cstrong>\u003Cstrong>Western Digital\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fstrong> alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cem>Analyze Western Digital on TIKR Free →\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-looking-for-new-opportunities\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Looking for New Opportunities?\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>See what stocks \u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">billionaire investors are buying\u003C\u002Fa> \u003C\u002Fstrong>so you can follow the smart money.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong> with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. \u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fregister?ref=tikrblog\">Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-disclaimer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>Disclaimer:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cem>Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fp>\n",1596,"en","\u002Fblog\u002Fwestern-digital-just-hit-its-deepest-drawdown-in-a-year-the-street-target-still-sits-23-higher","western-digital-just-hit-its-deepest-drawdown-in-a-year-the-street-target-still-sits-23-higher","images\u002F6-5_117720390b6\u002F6-5_117720390b6","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1784224532\u002Fimages\u002F6-5_117720390b6\u002F6-5_117720390b6.png?_i=AA",{"altText":153,"imageCredit":165},"@evertonpestana from pixabay via Canva, @baranozdemir from Getty Images Signature via Canva",{"name":167,"slug":168,"role":169,"roleTitle":170,"biography":170,"avatar":170,"socialMediaLinks":171},"Wiltone Asuncion","wiltonetikr","author","",[],{"name":173,"slug":174,"role":175,"roleTitle":170,"biography":170,"avatar":170,"socialMediaLinks":176},"David Hanson","davidtikr","editor",[],[178],{"name":179,"slug":180,"uri":181,"description":170,"postsCount":182},"Stock Reviews","reviews","\u002Fblog\u002Fcategory\u002Freviews",0,[],{"title":153,"metaDesc":185,"opengraphDescription":185,"twitterTitle":153,"twitterDescription":185},"Western Digital just set its deepest drawdown of the past year at 31.14%. The Street’s mean target still sits near $630, well above the price. The gap between them comes down to one number in the August print.",{"title":153,"description":187,"twitterTitle":153,"twitterDescription":187,"author":167,"articlePublisher":188,"articlePublishedTime":154,"articleModifiedTime":155,"twitterLabel1":189,"twitterData1":190,"ogTitle":153,"ogDescription":187,"ogUrl":160,"ogImage":163,"ogImageWidth":191,"ogImageHeight":192,"ogImageSecureUrl":163,"ogImageAlt":153,"twitterImage":163},"Western Digital just set its deepest drawdown of the past year at 31.14%. The Street’s mean target still sits near $630, well above the price. The gap between them comes down to one number in the August print.","TIKR.com","预计阅读时间","9 minutes",1200,630,[],[]]