[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"app-context":3,"blog-durability-and-predictability-micron-is-up-200-in-2026-take-profits-or-buy-more-ZH":150},{"languages":4,"categories":41,"products":125,"competitors":149},[5,9,13,17,21,25,29,33,37],{"name":6,"code":7,"id":8},"English","EN","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZW4=",{"name":10,"code":11,"id":12},"Español","ES","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZXM=",{"name":14,"code":15,"id":16},"Português","PT","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6cHQ=",{"name":18,"code":19,"id":20},"日本語","JA","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6amE=",{"name":22,"code":23,"id":24},"한국어","KO","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6a28=",{"name":26,"code":27,"id":28},"Deutsch","DE","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZGU=",{"name":30,"code":31,"id":32},"Italiano","IT","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6aXQ=",{"name":34,"code":35,"id":36},"Français","FR","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6ZnI=",{"name":38,"code":39,"id":40},"中文 (中国)","ZH","TGFuZ3VhZ2U6emg=",[42,73,104],{"icon":43,"slug":44,"title":45,"description":46,"featuredLinks":47},"mingcute:stock-line","stock-market-basics","Stock Market Basics","\u003Cp>Beginners' guides and practical tips for understanding stock market investing.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[48,53,58,63,68],{"url":49,"title":50,"description":51,"ogImage":52},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-makes-stocks-go-up-and-down","What Makes Stocks Go Up and Down | TIKR.com","Understanding what makes stock prices go up and down can help investors better navigate investing. Click to learn more!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-makes-stocks-go-up-and-down-banner\u002FWhat-makes-stocks-go-up-and-down-banner.jpg?_i=AA",{"url":54,"title":55,"description":56,"ogImage":57},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fdividend-yield-meaning-formula-example","Dividend Yield: Meaning, Formula, Example | Tikr.com Blog | TIKR.com","The dividend yield is a key metric for investors looking to gauge the income potential of their investments. It measures how much a company pays out in","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FDividend-yield\u002FDividend-yield.png?_i=AA",{"url":59,"title":60,"description":61,"ogImage":62},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fmarket-capitalization-definition-formula-and-why-it-matters","Market Capitalization: Definition, Formula, and Why It Matters | TIKR.com","Long-term investors often look at various valuation metrics when deciding whether to invest in a particular company. One helpful metric to evaluate is","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FMarket-Capitalization-Definition-Formula-and-Why-It-Matters\u002FMarket-Capitalization-Definition-Formula-and-Why-It-Matters.png?_i=AA",{"url":64,"title":65,"description":66,"ogImage":67},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fearnings-per-share-definition-formula-and-why-eps-matters","Earnings Per Share: Definition, Formula, and Why EPS Matters | TIKR.com","Earnings Per Share (EPS) represents the portion of a company's net earnings allocated to each share. Click to learn more!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FEPS-Defiinition-formula-and-why-EPS-matters-1\u002FEPS-Defiinition-formula-and-why-EPS-matters-1.png?_i=AA",{"url":69,"title":70,"description":71,"ogImage":72},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-stock-price-target","What Is a Stock Price Target? | TIKR.com","A price target is a stock's estimated future price. It can help investors quickly find undervalued stocks. Learn more now!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-Stock-Price-Target-2\u002FWhat-is-a-Stock-Price-Target-2.png?_i=AA",{"icon":74,"slug":75,"title":76,"description":77,"featuredLinks":78},"material-symbols:analytics-outline","fundamental-analysis","Fundamental Analysis","\u003Cp>In-depth resources and financial metrics to help you evaluate companies like a pro.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[79,84,89,94,99],{"url":80,"title":81,"description":82,"ogImage":83},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fshare-repurchase-why-do-companies-buy-back-their-stock","Share Repurchase: Why Do Companies Buy Back Their Stock? | TIKR.com","Share repurchases, or share buybacks, have gained popularity in the last two decades. According to a report from Goldman Sachs, stock buybacks initiated","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FTIKR-BLOG-COVER-PHOTOS-3_544a7f4e\u002FTIKR-BLOG-COVER-PHOTOS-3_544a7f4e.png?_i=AA",{"url":85,"title":86,"description":87,"ogImage":88},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-return-on-invested-capital","What Is a Good Return on Invested Capital? | TIKR.com","Learning about Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) can help investors spot highly profitable stocks that can drive long-term returns. Learn more now!","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-Invested-capital\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-Invested-capital.png?_i=AA",{"url":90,"title":91,"description":92,"ogImage":93},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-return-on-equity-ratio","What is a Good Return on Equity Ratio | Tikr.com Blog | TIKR.com","Return on Equity (ROE) is a financial ratio that reflects a company's profitability in relation to the equity invested by shareholders. It basically","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-equity-ratio-1\u002FWhat-is-a-good-return-on-equity-ratio-1.jpg?_i=AA",{"url":95,"title":96,"description":97,"ogImage":98},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-a-good-p-e-ratio","What Is a Good P\u002FE Ratio? | TIKR.com","Financial analysts and investors look at various metrics before deciding whether a stock is a buy. One of the metrics is the price-to-earnings ratio (P\u002FE","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-a-good-PE-ratio-1\u002FWhat-is-a-good-PE-ratio-1.jpg?_i=AA",{"url":100,"title":101,"description":102,"ogImage":103},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Ftop-6-metrics-for-investing-in-reits","Top 6 Metrics for Investing in REITs | TIKR.com","Real estate has been one of the greatest asset classes for wealth creation in history, and investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) can allow","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FGroup-10\u002FGroup-10.png?_i=AA",{"icon":105,"slug":106,"title":107,"description":108,"featuredLinks":109},"hugeicons:investigation","investing-lingo","Investing Lingo","\u003Cp>A comprehensive glossary of investing terms and jargon so you can speak the language of the markets confidently.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[110,115,120],{"url":111,"title":112,"description":113,"ogImage":114},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fenterprise-value-definition-and-calculation","Enterprise Value: Definition and Calculation | Tikr.com Blog | TIKR.com","Enterprise value (EV) is a financial metric that offers a comprehensive snapshot of a company's total value. Unlike market capitalization which solely","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FEnterprise-Value-Definition-and-Calculation_37576e40\u002FEnterprise-Value-Definition-and-Calculation_37576e40.png?_i=AA",{"url":116,"title":117,"description":118,"ogImage":119},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Febitda-definition-formula-how-to-use-it","EBITDA: Definition, Formula, How to Use It | TIKR.com","EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It's a financial metric commonly used to evaluate a company's financial","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FEBITDA-Definition-Formula-How-to-Use-It\u002FEBITDA-Definition-Formula-How-to-Use-It.png?_i=AA",{"url":121,"title":122,"description":123,"ogImage":124},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fblog\u002Fwhat-is-the-free-cash-flow-formula-and-why-does-it-matter","What is the Free Cash Flow Formula and Why Does It Matter | TIKR.com","Free cash flow, or FCF, is the cash a company generates after it accounts for outflows required to maintain business operations and support capital","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fimages\u002FWhat-is-the-free-cash-flow-formula\u002FWhat-is-the-free-cash-flow-formula.png?_i=AA",[126,130,134,137,141,145],{"slug":127,"modified":128,"title":129},"valuation-model-builder","2025-07-03T00:18:53","Value Stocks Quickly and Accurately",{"slug":131,"modified":132,"title":133},"stock-portfolio-tracking","2024-12-02T22:21:28","Monitor Your Portfolio",{"slug":75,"modified":135,"title":136},"2025-01-21T22:10:52","Instantly Analyze Companies with In-Depth Metrics",{"slug":138,"modified":139,"title":140},"stock-screener","2024-12-02T22:13:31","Find the Best Stocks to Buy",{"slug":142,"modified":143,"title":144},"investor-stock-portfolio","2025-01-21T22:02:56","Follow Investment Moves of Top Investors",{"slug":146,"modified":147,"title":148},"analyze-stocks","2025-07-23T16:04:24","Analyze Stocks",[],{"post":151,"seo":187,"relatedPosts":195,"suggestedPosts":269},{"id":152,"title":153,"date":154,"modified":155,"excerpt":156,"content":157,"wordCount":158,"lang":159,"uri":160,"slug":161,"cloudinaryAssetId":162,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":163,"featuredImageMetadata":164,"author":167,"editor":173,"categories":178,"relatedPosts":184,"seo":185},144720,"“持久性与可预测性”：美光2026年上涨200%。获利了结，还是继续加仓？","2026-10-26T09:00:00","2026-10-26T07:21:07","\u003Cp>市盈率不到5倍，市场已经在押注崩盘了。\u003C\u002Fp>","\u003Ch2 id=\"h-key-takeaways\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>核心要点\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>截至上周五收盘，美光科技（Micron）股价在2026年上涨了208%。其季度营收在同一时期内增长了一倍多，从第二财季的238.6亿美元增至第四财季的542.3亿美元。\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>由于对AI支出和中国长鑫存储（CXMT）的担忧引发的抛售，该股较6月高点下跌了30%，但分析师仍在持续上调其盈利预期。\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>美光表示，其26份多年期\"照付不议\"客户协议覆盖了其到2030年超过35%的营收，这使得本轮存储芯片繁荣看起来比以往更具韧性。\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>以5倍远期市盈率来看，该股看起来值得买入。12月中旬公布的第一财季业绩，对照615亿美元的营收指引，将是下一个考验。\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">美光科技 (\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fapp.tikr.com\u002Fstock\u002Fabout?cid=289030&tid=2630498\">MU\u003C\u002Fa>) 股价在2026年（截至上周五收盘）上涨了208%。同时，它也较其在6月创下的52周高点下跌了30%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">那么，现在是获利了结，还是买入更多的时候？\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">营收增长甚至快于股价\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">美光的上涨源于连续三个季度报告，每个季度的业绩都强于上一个，因为AI需求遇上了存储芯片短缺：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>第二财季（3月18日报告）：营收238.6亿美元\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>第三财季（6月24日报告）：营收414.6亿美元，毛利率84.6%\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>第四财季（9月30日报告）：营收542.3亿美元，上年同期为113.2亿美元\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">以下是美光过去五年的营收情况…\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Cimg width=\"3024\" height=\"2016\" data-public-id=\"images\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_3024,h_2016,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795511\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png?_i=AA\" alt=\"TIKR提供的美光科技总营收柱状图，单位为十亿美元，财年2021–2025（截至每年8月）。\" class=\"wp-post-144720 wp-image-144716\" data-format=\"webp\" data-transformations=\"f_webp,q_auto\" data-version=\"1792795511\" data-seo=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795511\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png?_i=AA 3024w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795511\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png?_i=AA 600w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1200,h_800,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795511\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png?_i=AA 1200w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1400,h_933,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795511\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png?_i=AA 1400w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_300,h_200,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795511\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_revenue_2021-2025.png?_i=AA 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3024px) 100vw, 3024px\" \u002F>\u003Cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MU 总营收：财年 2021-2025 \u003Cstrong>(TIKR)\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">…而截至9月3日的2026财年营收为1331.9亿美元，2025财年为373.8亿美元。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-tikr-tracks-49-analysts-on-micron-how-many-say-buy\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>TIKR追踪49位分析师对美光的看法。有多少人说\"买入\"？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">在一个地方查看美光\"买入\"、\"持有\"和\"卖出\"评级的完整细分，以及华尔街的营收和盈利预期。超过50万投资者使用TIKR来研究像这样的股票。 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fvaluation-model-builder?ref=tikrblog\">查看美光的分析师评级\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">随后市场变得紧张\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">该股在6月报告发布后的第二天收于历史新高。随后，对AI支出不可持续的担忧使其下跌超过40%，之后在8月才转为上涨。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">10月带来了第二波下跌。在10月10日的周末，中国的长鑫存储（CXMT）表示其目标是在2026年底前推出基于更密集DRAM设计的服务器内存。服务器内存是美光最赚钱业务的核心：其核心数据中心部门上季度带来了180.0亿美元的营收，毛利率高达90%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fx.com\u002Felonmusk\u002Fstatus\u002F2111136408484069470\">在X上表示\u003C\u002Fa> ，如果中国能像其其他产品一样快速提升LP5和LP6内存的产能，\"那么2028年的情况将大不相同。\"\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">随后出现了对AI支出如何融资的担忧。周四，应用材料（Lam Research）令人失望的业绩展望和特斯拉削减其2026年支出计划，导致芯片股再次下跌。美光当天下跌6.3%，随后在周五反弹了2.5%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">在整个过程中，分析师们持续上调他们的预期数字…\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Cimg width=\"3024\" height=\"2016\" data-public-id=\"images\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_3024,h_2016,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795506\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png?_i=AA\" alt=\"TIKR提供的美光科技标准化每股收益（EPS）柱状图，实际值和共识预期，单位为美元\u002F股，财年2024–2029（截至每年8月）。\" class=\"wp-post-144720 wp-image-144718\" data-format=\"webp\" data-transformations=\"f_webp,q_auto\" data-version=\"1792795506\" data-seo=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795506\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png?_i=AA 3024w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795506\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png?_i=AA 600w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1200,h_800,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795506\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png?_i=AA 1200w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1400,h_933,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795506\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png?_i=AA 1400w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_300,h_200,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795506\u002Fimages\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029\u002FLM-MU-ytd-2026-10-22_MU_eps_estimates_2024-2029.png?_i=AA 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3024px) 100vw, 3024px\" \u002F>\u003Cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MU 标准化每股收益，实际值与共识预期：财年 2024-2029 \u003Cstrong>(TIKR)\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">目前对2027财年的共识预期是每股176.55美元，高于9月中旬的156.52美元。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">支撑\"持久性\"的协议\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">存储芯片价格波动剧烈，美光的利润率也是如此：其GAAP毛利率在2023财年为负9.1%，在2026财年为80.7%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">管理层表示，本轮繁荣的持续时间将更长。在6月公布业绩时，美光宣布了多年期战略客户协议，CEO Sanjay Mehrotra表示：\"我们相信，我们的多年期战略客户协议将显著增强美光强劲财务表现的持久性和可预测性。\"\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">在第四财季电话会议上，美光估计其26份多年期\"照付不议\"协议代表了其到2030年超过35%的营收。其中四分之三的营收有明确的定价框架，主要是底价和顶价。其余部分则根据市场情况定期定价。首席财务官Mark Murphy表示，即使在底价水平，美光也预期\"利润率将显著高于以往任何周期峰值的利润率。\"\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">在5倍市盈率时买入更多\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Cimg width=\"1118\" height=\"742\" data-public-id=\"images\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc.png\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_1118,h_742,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792999140\u002Fimages\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc.png?_i=AA\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-post-144720 wp-image-145381\" data-format=\"webp\" data-transformations=\"f_webp,q_auto\" data-version=\"1792999140\" data-seo=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792999140\u002Fimages\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc.png?_i=AA 1118w, https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_300,h_199,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792999140\u002Fimages\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc\u002Fimage-620_145381788bc.png?_i=AA 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1118px) 100vw, 1118px\" \u002F>\u003Cfigcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">MU 股票NTM市盈率：3年期 \u003Cstrong>(TIKR)\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ffigcaption>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">然而，美光目前的交易价格仅为远期市盈率的4.97倍，不到其三年平均值11.22倍的一半。这是市场给予那些预期利润将崩溃的公司的估值倍数…\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TIKR追踪的49位分析师给出的共识目标价为1,561美元，较上周五收盘价高出78%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">风险在于存储芯片周期本身：长鑫存储（CXMT）或其他任何公司的产能快速提升都将拉低价格和利润率。美光新推出的与利润挂钩的季度员工奖金也增加了成本。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">我的看法简单明了；那就是买入更多。在5倍市盈率下，当前价格已经假设了繁荣很快结束。由于超过三分之一的营收已锁定至2030年，突然崩溃的可能性比以往周期要小。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">下一个考验是12月中旬公布的第一财季业绩，对照的指引是615亿美元的营收和38.15美元的调整后每股收益。美光351.6亿美元的股票回购授权将于12月9日生效。当然，如果长鑫存储的服务器内存如期出货并快速提升产能，2028年的情况可能会大不相同。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 id=\"h-so-what-is-micron-stock-actually-worth\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">那么美光股票的实际价值是多少？\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TIKR让你在一分钟内预测任何股票的未来价格。只需在TIKR的估值模型中输入几个假设，就能看到美光可能的价值。可以从华尔街共识预期开始，或者调整输入参数以反映你对业务的看法。免费使用。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tikr.com\u002Fvaluation-model-builder?ref=tikrblog\">免费为美光估值\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 id=\"h-disclaimer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u003Cstrong>免责声明：\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u003Cem>请注意，TIKR上的文章并非TIKR或其内容团队提供的投资或财务建议，也不是买入或卖出任何股票的建议。我们根据TIKR Terminal的投资数据和分析师预期来创建内容。我们的分析可能未包含近期的公司新闻或重要更新。TIKR对提及的任何股票均无持仓。感谢阅读，祝您投资愉快！\u003C\u002Fem>\u003C\u002Fp>",939,"zh","\u002Fblog\u002Fdurability-and-predictability-micron-is-up-200-in-2026-take-profits-or-buy-more","durability-and-predictability-micron-is-up-200-in-2026-take-profits-or-buy-more","images\u002Fgrinning-bearded-man-rising-green-chart\u002Fgrinning-bearded-man-rising-green-chart","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795504\u002Fimages\u002Fgrinning-bearded-man-rising-green-chart\u002Fgrinning-bearded-man-rising-green-chart.png?_i=AA",{"altText":165,"imageCredit":166},"“Durability and Predictability”: Micron Is Up 200% in 2026. Take Profits, or Buy More?","max-kegfire from Getty Images via Canva",{"name":168,"slug":169,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":172},"Gian Estrada","giantikr","author","",[],{"name":174,"slug":175,"role":176,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":177},"David Hanson","davidtikr","editor",[],[179],{"name":180,"slug":181,"uri":182,"description":171,"postsCount":183},"一般投资","general-investing","\u002Fblog\u002Fcategory\u002Fgeneral-investing",0,[],{"title":165,"metaDesc":186,"opengraphDescription":186,"twitterTitle":165,"twitterDescription":186},"At under 5x earnings, the market’s already betting on a bust.",{"title":188,"description":189,"twitterTitle":188,"twitterDescription":189,"author":168,"articlePublisher":190,"articlePublishedTime":154,"articleModifiedTime":155,"twitterLabel1":191,"twitterData1":192,"ogTitle":188,"ogDescription":189,"ogUrl":160,"ogImage":163,"ogImageWidth":193,"ogImageHeight":194,"ogImageSecureUrl":163,"ogImageAlt":165,"twitterImage":163},"“Durability and Predictability”: Micron Is Up 200% in 2026. Take Profits, or Buy More?","At under 5x earnings, the market’s already betting on a bust.","TIKR.com","预计阅读时间","1 minute",1200,630,[196,211,225,239,254],{"id":183,"title":197,"date":198,"excerpt":199,"wordCount":200,"uri":201,"slug":202,"cloudinaryAssetId":203,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":204,"featuredImageMetadata":205,"author":206,"categories":208,"relatedPosts":210},"Nebius一个月内下跌33%。美国银行认为其仍有95%的上涨空间","2026-10-26 09:00:00","借来的恐惧，与2027年迫近的现实账单",1109,"\u002Fblog\u002Fnebius-lost-33-in-a-month-bank-of-america-sees-95-upside-from-here","nebius-lost-33-in-a-month-bank-of-america-sees-95-upside-from-here","images\u002Fpondering-man-falling-red-bars\u002Fpondering-man-falling-red-bars","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792795474\u002Fimages\u002Fpondering-man-falling-red-bars\u002Fpondering-man-falling-red-bars.png?_i=AA",{"altText":197},{"name":168,"slug":169,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":207},[],[209],{"name":180,"slug":181,"uri":182,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":212,"date":198,"excerpt":213,"wordCount":214,"uri":215,"slug":216,"cloudinaryAssetId":217,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":218,"featuredImageMetadata":219,"author":220,"categories":222,"relatedPosts":224},"Bloom Energy股价过去一年上涨91%。这是接下来需要关注的关键数字。","Bloom Energy股价一年内上涨了91%，但在创纪录的季度业绩公布后却下跌了11%，目前市盈率达40倍。以下是华尔街仍对其持有的预期。",1276,"\u002Fblog\u002Fbloom-energy-stock-is-up-91-over-the-past-year-heres-the-number-to-watch-next","bloom-energy-stock-is-up-91-over-the-past-year-heres-the-number-to-watch-next","images\u002Fsmiling-man-in-a-tie-rising-green-bars\u002Fsmiling-man-in-a-tie-rising-green-bars","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792780118\u002Fimages\u002Fsmiling-man-in-a-tie-rising-green-bars\u002Fsmiling-man-in-a-tie-rising-green-bars.png?_i=AA",{"altText":212},{"name":168,"slug":169,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":221},[],[223],{"name":180,"slug":181,"uri":182,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":226,"date":198,"excerpt":227,"wordCount":228,"uri":229,"slug":230,"cloudinaryAssetId":231,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":232,"featuredImageMetadata":233,"author":234,"categories":236,"relatedPosts":238},"Netflix股价一年内下跌41%。华纳兄弟让它付出了多大代价？","Netflix股价在过去一年下跌了41%，华尔街的平均目标价也随之下降了37%。以下是2026年每份财报对股价的影响。",1282,"\u002Fblog\u002Fnetflix-stock-is-down-41-in-a-year-how-much-did-warner-bros-cost-it","netflix-stock-is-down-41-in-a-year-how-much-did-warner-bros-cost-it","images\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1895\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1895","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792956211\u002Fimages\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1895\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1895.png?_i=AA",{"altText":226},{"name":168,"slug":169,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":235},[],[237],{"name":180,"slug":181,"uri":182,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":240,"date":241,"excerpt":242,"wordCount":243,"uri":244,"slug":245,"cloudinaryAssetId":246,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":247,"featuredImageMetadata":248,"author":249,"categories":251,"relatedPosts":253},"阿斯利康：胃癌药物销售潜力达30至50亿美元，但存在一个显著问题","2026-10-26 08:35:51","阿斯利康的sone-ve药物在三线胃癌治疗中将死亡风险降低了53%，但在疾病进展方面以微弱差距未达终点。即便其50亿美元的销售峰值，也占不到公司总收入的9%。",734,"\u002Fblog\u002Fastrazeneca-stomach-cancer-drug-with-3-to-5-billion-sales-potential-and-one-significant-wrinkle","astrazeneca-stomach-cancer-drug-with-3-to-5-billion-sales-potential-and-one-significant-wrinkle","images\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1898\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1898","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1793003135\u002Fimages\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1898\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1898.png?_i=AA",{"altText":240},{"name":168,"slug":169,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":250},[],[252],{"name":180,"slug":181,"uri":182,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":255,"date":256,"excerpt":257,"wordCount":258,"uri":259,"slug":260,"cloudinaryAssetId":261,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":262,"featuredImageMetadata":263,"author":264,"categories":266,"relatedPosts":268},"SK海力士承诺10月28日公布股东回报方案：能否支付120亿美元特别股息？","2026-10-26 07:00:00","SK海力士可能将返还其约70%的滚动自由现金流。周三公布的股息数字将显示现金是流向股东还是Solidigm。",820,"\u002Fblog\u002Fsk-hynix-promises-shareholder-returns-on-october-28-can-it-pay-a-12-billion-special-dividend","sk-hynix-promises-shareholder-returns-on-october-28-can-it-pay-a-12-billion-special-dividend","images\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1896\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1896","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792994007\u002Fimages\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1896\u002FFEATURED-IMAGE-MAKER-1896.png?_i=AA",{"altText":255},{"name":168,"slug":169,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":265},[],[267],{"name":180,"slug":181,"uri":182,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],[270,290,305,320,335],{"id":183,"title":271,"date":272,"excerpt":273,"wordCount":274,"uri":275,"slug":276,"cloudinaryAssetId":277,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":278,"featuredImageMetadata":279,"author":280,"categories":284,"relatedPosts":289},"埃克森美孚股价创下收盘新高，布伦特原油突破116美元。展望2030年该股走势","2026-10-26 07:55:00","埃克森美孚10月23日收盘创下183.21美元的历史新高，当时布伦特原油价格突破每桶116美元，目前其股价已超过华尔街分析师的平均目标价。该公司首席财务官表示，与先锋自然资源合并的协同效应已翻倍，且埃克森的目标是通过更少的油井使二叠纪盆地的采收率翻倍，这是公司可控的一项成本杠杆。",791,"\u002Fblog\u002Fexxonmobil-stock-hit-a-record-close-as-brent-topped-116-heres-where-the-stock-could-go-by-2030","exxonmobil-stock-hit-a-record-close-as-brent-topped-116-heres-where-the-stock-could-go-by-2030","images\u002F13-10\u002F13-10","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792976181\u002Fimages\u002F13-10\u002F13-10.png?_i=AA",{"altText":271},{"name":281,"slug":282,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":283},"Wiltone Asuncion","wiltonetikr",[],[285],{"name":286,"slug":287,"uri":288,"description":171,"postsCount":183},"股票评论","reviews","\u002Fblog\u002Fcategory\u002Freviews",[],{"id":183,"title":291,"date":292,"excerpt":293,"wordCount":294,"uri":295,"slug":296,"cloudinaryAssetId":297,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":298,"featuredImageMetadata":299,"author":300,"categories":302,"relatedPosts":304},"Rivian创下52周新低，就在收购AI模拟初创公司次日。10月29日市场走势说明了什么","2026-10-26 07:50:00","Rivian股价在收购一家人工智能模拟初创公司次日触及52周低点，延续了数周前开始的19%跌幅。10月29日的财报如今必须证明其成本结构能够承载自动驾驶研发支出。",925,"\u002Fblog\u002Frivian-hit-a-52-week-low-the-day-after-buying-an-ai-simulation-startup-heres-what-october-29-has-to-show","rivian-hit-a-52-week-low-the-day-after-buying-an-ai-simulation-startup-heres-what-october-29-has-to-show","images\u002F12-10_145310df477\u002F12-10_145310df477","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792976166\u002Fimages\u002F12-10_145310df477\u002F12-10_145310df477.png?_i=AA",{"altText":291},{"name":281,"slug":282,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":301},[],[303],{"name":286,"slug":287,"uri":288,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":306,"date":307,"excerpt":308,"wordCount":309,"uri":310,"slug":311,"cloudinaryAssetId":312,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":313,"featuredImageMetadata":314,"author":315,"categories":317,"relatedPosts":319},"Robinhood股票在10月发布第三季度财报前下跌了15%。以下是其到2030年的潜在走向","2026-10-26 07:45:00","Robinhood在10月27日财报发布前，两个交易日累计下跌6.73%，走势与Coinbase同步。10月22日的两项进展指向可能不会在其加密货币收入项中体现的加密活动：比特币价格合约以及Morpho为其股票代币推出的首个借贷市场。",854,"\u002Fblog\u002Frobinhood-stock-fell-15-in-october-before-its-q3-report-heres-where-it-could-go-by-2030","robinhood-stock-fell-15-in-october-before-its-q3-report-heres-where-it-could-go-by-2030","images\u002F11-11_145309e717b\u002F11-11_145309e717b","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792976143\u002Fimages\u002F11-11_145309e717b\u002F11-11_145309e717b.png?_i=AA",{"altText":306},{"name":281,"slug":282,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":316},[],[318],{"name":286,"slug":287,"uri":288,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":321,"date":322,"excerpt":323,"wordCount":324,"uri":325,"slug":326,"cloudinaryAssetId":327,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":328,"featuredImageMetadata":329,"author":330,"categories":332,"relatedPosts":334},"沃尔玛股价10月上涨15%，尽管盈利预测并未上调。以下是其到2031年的潜在走势","2026-10-26 07:40:00","沃尔玛股价在9月30日至10月23日期间上涨了15.4%，但分析师对其未来12个月的每股收益（EPS）预估仍维持在3.00美元。几乎全部涨幅都源于更高的估值倍数，而公司此前在11月19日发布的业绩指引中，预计每股收益增长仅为0%至3%。",832,"\u002Fblog\u002Fwalmart-stock-rose-15-in-october-without-a-higher-earnings-forecast-heres-where-it-could-go-by-2031","walmart-stock-rose-15-in-october-without-a-higher-earnings-forecast-heres-where-it-could-go-by-2031","images\u002F10-14_145308a5c00\u002F10-14_145308a5c00","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792976123\u002Fimages\u002F10-14_145308a5c00\u002F10-14_145308a5c00.png?_i=AA",{"altText":321},{"name":281,"slug":282,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":331},[],[333],{"name":286,"slug":287,"uri":288,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[],{"id":183,"title":336,"date":337,"excerpt":338,"wordCount":339,"uri":340,"slug":341,"cloudinaryAssetId":342,"featuredImageOriginalUrl":343,"featuredImageMetadata":344,"author":345,"categories":347,"relatedPosts":349},"苹果短暂超越英伟达，英伟达股价跌幅达12%。苹果股票到2030年可能走向何方","2026-10-26 07:35:00","苹果公司于10月23日短暂超越英伟达，成为全球市值最高的公司，股价创下351.73美元的历史新高。其人工智能战略所需资本支出极少，但以38倍的市盈率来看，11月2日公布的利润率数据将决定其估值倍数。",845,"\u002Fblog\u002Fapple-briefly-topped-nvidia-as-nvidias-slide-reached-12-heres-where-apple-stock-could-go-by-2030","apple-briefly-topped-nvidia-as-nvidias-slide-reached-12-heres-where-apple-stock-could-go-by-2030","images\u002F9-15_1453077213e\u002F9-15_1453077213e","https:\u002F\u002Fres.cloudinary.com\u002Ftikr\u002Fimages\u002Fw_600,h_400,c_scale\u002Ff_webp,q_auto\u002Fv1792976106\u002Fimages\u002F9-15_1453077213e\u002F9-15_1453077213e.png?_i=AA",{"altText":336},{"name":281,"slug":282,"role":170,"roleTitle":171,"biography":171,"avatar":171,"socialMediaLinks":346},[],[348],{"name":286,"slug":287,"uri":288,"description":171,"postsCount":183},[]]