Introducing Valuation Models! 
Dev Kantesaria founded Valley Forge Capital Management in 2007 after decades of studying Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Since its inception, his Philadelphia-based firm has beaten the S&P 500 by a wide margin and now oversees roughly $4 billion.
Kantesaria runs an exceptionally concentrated strategy, typically holding just eight to twelve positions that meet two strict criteria: (1) durable, easily understood business models whose economics have been proven for decades, and (2) enough organic growth and pricing power to compound intrinsic value in the “high-teens to low-twenties” for ten years or more.
Predictability is Kantesaria’s north star. He would rather sacrifice a few points of growth than own anything that could blow up. That mind-set keeps him out of highly acquisitive roll-ups, speculative biotech, commodity producers and most “big tech” names. Instead, he prefers what he calls toll-booth businesses—credit-rating duopolies, global payment networks, and indispensable software platforms that can raise prices a few percent above inflation almost every year.
Capital allocation matters just as much as business quality. Kantesaria wants companies that require little reinvestment and funnel prodigious free cash flow into share repurchases, not splashy acquisitions. He also insists on management teams that think like owners and are happy to let earnings per share grind higher rather than chase headline revenue.
The latest Valley Forge holdings we can see come from its March 31, 2025 Form 13F. (U.S. managers report positions 45 days after each quarter-end, so an updated snapshot for the June 30 quarter should arrive in mid-August.) Those filings show that five stocks make up more than 90% of the firm’s public-equity portfolio:
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Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
• Position: $1.42 billion (32.3 % of portfolio)
• One-year price return: +23.2 %
• Forward drivers: mortgage-score price hikes in 2024 and another 40 % in 2025; volumes rebound when U.S. refinancing returns.
FICO is Kantesaria’s largest holding and embodies everything he looks for in a company. It has a near-monopoly on U.S. consumer credit scores, incredible pricing power, and minimal reinvestment needs. He highlights FICO’s ability to double mortgage score prices in just two years while maintaining its dominant market position.
The business generates massive free cash flow and redeploys it through share repurchases. It is deeply predictable, with strong recurring revenue and a long runway for growth. FICO is a textbook example of a high-return compounding machine that can thrive without external capital.
S&P Global (SPGI)
• Position: $892 million (20.3% of portfolio)
• 1-Year Price Return: +18.6%
• Gross Margin: 69.4%
• 3-Year Revenue CAGR: 19.6%
S&P Global is a toll collector on global debt markets. Kantesaria first bought the stock during the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, when credit ratings agencies were under fire. What he saw then still holds true today: a business with an essential product, high margins, and the ability to raise prices across cycles.
S&P’s recurring revenue, global scale, and brand strength make it one of the most durable companies in the world. It fits Kantesaria’s preference for predictable, capital-light businesses that return cash to shareholders rather than chase growth through acquisition.
Mastercard (MA)
• Position: $814 million (18.5% of portfolio)
• 1-Year Price Return: +29.0%
• ROIC: 65.9%
Mastercard offers another example of Kantesaria’s favorite kind of business: a global network effect that becomes more valuable with scale. The company earns a fee every time someone swipes, taps, or transacts across its platform. With little competition, high margins, and rising global digital payments, Mastercard has a wide moat and predictable cash flows.
Kantesaria appreciates Mastercard’s disciplined capital allocation, especially its ongoing share buybacks and margin stability. The company does not require significant reinvestment and has plenty of room to grow through increased payment volumes and cross-border spending.
Moody’s Corporation (MCO)
• Position: $612 million (13.9% of portfolio)
• 1-Year Price Return: +19.2%
• Gross Margin: 72.8%
• ROIC: 26.4%
Moody’s, like S&P Global, is part of a highly rational duopoly that rates global debt. It produces recurring, high-margin revenue with very little capital required to operate. That consistency fits neatly into Kantesaria’s framework for quality. He believes short-term headwinds in debt issuance simply create opportunities to buy more of a great business at a better price.
Kantesaria has also praised Moody’s for staying focused on its core operations and resisting the temptation to overextend through acquisition. It remains a strong compounding engine with global relevance and excellent capital efficiency.
Visa (V)
• Position: $320 million (7.3% of portfolio)
• 1-Year Price Return: +35.0%
• EBIT Margin: 66.7%
• ROIC: 39.2%
Visa checks all the boxes in the Valley Forge playbook. It is highly profitable, capital-light, and operates a platform that becomes more powerful with every new customer. Visa’s scale and infrastructure make it nearly impossible to replicate, and its long-term secular growth drivers remain intact.
Kantesaria appreciates Visa’s ability to generate reliable free cash flow and its preference for buybacks over acquisitions. With stable pricing power and a strong moat, Visa is another example of a business that he believes can grow earnings predictably for the next decade.
Letting Time and Quality Do the Work
Dev Kantesaria is not chasing the next big thing. He is building a portfolio of dominant, enduring franchises that can grow earnings predictably and efficiently over decades. His five largest positions — FICO, S&P Global, Mastercard, Moody’s, and Visa — are all examples of capital-light businesses with pricing power, rational management, and long runways.
While many investors worry about short-term valuation multiples, Kantesaria remains focused on long-term compounding. As he puts it, “Getting worked up over whether a stock trades at 26 or 29 times earnings is far less important than making sure you own the right business.” These five holdings reflect that belief.
New filings from Valley Forge’s June quarter are expected in mid-August, but with a strategy this focused, don’t expect any sudden moves. Predictable growth, not portfolio turnover, is what drives results at Valley Forge Capital.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
